Originally Posted by
SkyHigh
Projected hiring at the legacy airlines that is based upon retirements assumes that the companies are going to stay the same or grow over the next 20 years. Thus far it seems that all they have done is to merge and shrink.
Most of the projections that Boeing has made regarding the future seems based upon a sunny economic future full of cheap aviation fuel. It is not far fetched to consider the possibility of a future of continued contraction at the majors.
Those who have been reading the news lately might share my concerns. I hope it will be growth though.
Skyhigh
The federal DOT disagrees with your assessment. Traffic will almost double in the US over the next 20 years.
FAA predicts steady growth for airline industry - USATODAY.com
WASHINGTON – The embattled airline industry will see solid long-term growth over the next 20 years with yearly passenger totals climbing from 713 million to nearly 1.3 billion, the government predicted today.
That growth will add huge new pressures on the aviation system, requiring technological improvements to ensure that it can handle the additional traffic, said Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.
"We need to invest in aviation today to make sure America's economy remains competitive," LaHood said.
The annual Federal Aviation Administration aviation forecast projects small increases in airline flights and passengers this year compared to 2010. Overall, the amount of flights will decrease slightly this year due to continuing decreases in private aircraft flights, the FAA says.
After a decade in which the airlines lost a collective $60 billion, the FAA says the industry turned a profit last year of $9.5 billion as the U.S. economy rebounded from recession and airfares rose.
Domestic airline passengers are expected to increase by 3% this year over last and then climb by an average of 2.5% annually for the remainder of the next 20 years. International traffic is forecast to surge this year by 7.8% and continue growing by 4.3%, the FAA says.
Some airline industry experts see the government's forecast as overly rosy, given the past decade of massive upheaval in the industry.
"We've got some turbulence ahead of us, there is no doubt about that," says Darryl Jenkins, an airline consultant. "And it's going to be turbulent for another four or five years."
Stung by the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, high fuel prices and a sour economy, the airline industry has responded by slashing capacity. Given the huge debt that the industry carries from years of losses, Jenkins says he does not see a significant expansion any time soon.
"It's a very optimistic long-term outlook in an industry where optimism usually kills you," he says of the FAA's forecast.
Airline delays have fallen significantly since airlines, facing high fuel costs and heavy losses, began reducing flights in 2008. However, officials warn that strained airports in New York, Atlanta and other cities could once again face gridlock if traffic increases to previous levels.
"Only a modernized air transportation system will be able to keep up with our forecasted demand," says FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt.