That bet might be more easily born to fruition than you think. That is why I am fascinated by the goings on at American.
Eagle, who is ALPA, effectively waived their scope (they'll say they didn't, read the press and decide what management thinks they did) for a flow through to nowhere.
In unionism, unity is god. If I may paraphrase from St. Matthew, with Unity all things are possible. If we offered a bridge, backed up by real seniority numbers, the regional pilots would be clamoring to get on board. Sure, you'd have your odd web board bomb throwers, but the vast majority would vote themselves off the island and over to mainline in a heart beat.
The way it should play out:
IF:
- Delta wants 100 to 130 seat jets that it does not have to pay for
- Delta wants 400+ 50 seat RJ's parked pronto, resulting in massive small jet furloughs
- Delta is really worried about a supply of proficient, safe, pilots
and IF:
- ALPA's relevance is decreasing because they don't control access to the jobs, or the vast majority of jobs in the business
- ALPA cares about union members promotional rights, job security and longevity
THEN:
Multi party scope agreements are entered into which provide real seniority numbers to small jet pilots, beginning their longevity at mainline, as permitted small jet flying REQUIRES operation by a "Delta pilot" regardless of the operator, owner, lessee, or contractor providing the service.
DETAIL:
In exchange for greatly enhanced job security and longevity the small jet pilots must concede to a rational list using the principles of status quo. That means stapled on the bottom of mainline, but with the retention of their DOH for benefits within their own Company and merged by category and percent amongst their peers.
In practice there would be one master seniority list, and various lists which recognize the preexisting status of each pilot. Pilots would remain within their own list until at a time of their choosing they bid out using their master number. As such, they would enjoy equivalent base & seat protection as if the "merger" had not occurred.
New hires would go to the bottom of the master list and be assigned as needed.
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Moak would try to derail it, but if he could not, he would sign it. This plan would save ALPA. The DPA has the numbers to make it happen.