Andy:

All good points; I would say the ripple-effect is between your 4, and maybe as high as 6 (what I saw in the 1999-2000 time frame, although there were more aircraft types to choose from then ).

My point to Sonny was a brand-new seat (new airframe) may bring as many as 12 pilots that he quoted...but we aren't seeing new-growth seats.

Still, with the loss of available pilots during/due to training, you are probably looking at 1.2-1.5 pilots per retirement (my estimate). That's a good point.

And agreed on the current 757-767 manning/furlough/retirement analysis.