Originally Posted by
UAL T38 Phlyer
Andy:
All good points; I would say the ripple-effect is between your 4, and maybe as high as 6 (what I saw in the 1999-2000 time frame, although there
were more aircraft types to choose from then
).
My point to Sonny was a brand-new
seat (new airframe) may bring as many as 12 pilots that he quoted...but we aren't seeing new-growth seats.
Still, with the loss of available pilots during/due to training, you are probably looking at 1.2-1.5 pilots per retirement (my estimate). That's a good point.
And agreed on the current 757-767 manning/furlough/retirement analysis.
I'd love to use the the 1999-2000 seat training numbers but as you mentioned, we have less aircraft types today so that there will be less training events.
There is also less incentive to bid between a 777 and 747 since they are both on the same payband. With only 6 paybands, there will be a lot less bids that require training. When I was hired in 2000, there were 16 different pay rates; all the way from 747CA to 727FE; we have retired the DC-10, 727, and 737 fleets since then.
And as mentioned by syd111, not all retirements are widebody captains. Many are widebody FOs and narrowbody captains. Those retirements will not trigger as many training events.