Originally Posted by
Sideshow Bob
The government just paid out huge on a 2008 F-18 crash.
Go write an MRB or make some coffee sonny, chop chop.
Pffffffft....
Well, if huge is less than half the cost of a single aircraft, you may have a point.
In July 2010, Yoon sued Boeing and the United States government for an unspecified amount. In the suit, Yoon alleges that the government violated many of its procedures in its operation of the mishap aircraft and that Boeing was responsible for the defects in the aircraft's fuel systems which caused the crash.[21] Yoon later stated that the compensation offer from the US government for the loss of his four family members and his home was "insulting". Yoon's lawsuit against the US Navy was heard in a federal district court in San Diego in December 2011.[23] On 28 December 2011, U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Miller awarded Yoon, his father-in-law, and mother-in-law's three adult children a total of $17.8 million in damage compensation from the U.S. government
It really is not clear who will pay the damages, but the real point is that you can cherry pick and completely miss the real probability.
Chop Chop son, you will have to do better than that to build a case.
The actual payout is still unknown, and will likely be far less than the stated amount, but it makes a good story.
What you really are trying to say is that the UPS/Fedex actuarial science is faulty, but you have no idea of the actual data involved and just want to venture a wild guess. Understandable, but not reasonable.