eaglefly

Neither am I a fan, but in this instance his conclusions parallel mine quite closely, that being the most likely result of AA remaining stand alone (or at least tethered to One World/IAG) and that if any other competitors want to pick apart the parts and decimate the whole, it would have to be palatable to the AA employees to prevent their resistance. Again, the employees don't control, but do have influence, especially if it involves break-up.

It is this last point that I consider AMR management to walk the finest line and would be the "hole in the line" for competitor infiltration. The problem is, it appears AMR management might be about to adopt a strategy of shielding their fleet retention plan and possibly even their business plan from others (and perhaps labor) until AFTER they get labor cuts. If they do that with labor and empoyees succomb to draconian cuts based on "mystery threats" and then it turns out management has once again slipped them a rusty musket, this time by misrepresenting their true plans for scheming leverage, labor is more likely to then actively seek (and possibly assist) outside competitors so they could then stick it back to AMR before the time clock runs out. AA labor having meetings with DAL or U or a combination of competitors to get ANY deal that preserves the most jobs, gives them a better deal compensation wise, while (right or wrong) finally getting long awaited revenge for decades of maltreatment would be the ultimate irony if AMR uses this BK process to once again "conquer" their employees.

A very dicey game for AMR and one wrong step and the thickening circle of buzzards might just get their opening. Again, I consider AMR to have a "trojan horse" scenario with their employee groups right now, especially their pilots. Even if AMR plays their 1113's pretty much down the middle, if something changes, many of the pilots could vacate quite quickly. This could occur evenly accross all fleets and the training process could easily never catch up. Parking S80's is one thing, but exiting BK and then having to park a lot of new 737's or 777's suddenly puts AMR in a very bad position or likewise, but in opposition, if a hostile assault unwanted by the employees occurs by one or more competitors. It takes 2 months to train 1 pilot (another month or two for the interview process and all the PRIA stuff, etc.). Whomever inherits AA, be it AMR or other(s) could find themselves with a lot of parked aircraft in short order and no one to fly them in time to prevent the mass exodus of revenue to other more stable frequent flyer palns and networks.

It could turn out to be the biggest game of russian roulette the airline industry has ever seen, if not played perfectly with exact timing. If done wrong by an outside competitor, they could easily lose more $$ in lost revenue and expenses, then it cost to aquire it in the first place. This has already been demonstrated by.......*drum roll, please*.......AMR themselves, in the TWA acquisition whereby they jumped the gun (or were suckered) into bying TWA to counter the UAL/U proposed merger that failed. I believe AMR paid $800 million for TWA assets, then spent another $800 million parking most of the planes, dumping most of the equipment and furloughing most of the employees. A colassal blunder, no doubt.

You know what scares me ?

It's essentially still the same management. God, I hope they don't make the same mistake twice.

Late next week when (hopefully) details start emerging on what the future corporate culture of AA management will be towards their employees as demonstrated by their 1113's (and possibly their business plan), it will tell more about AA's future then dollars and cents. If it is a complete gutting and a repeat of business as usual, THEN I'll change my tune and say I don't think AMR management will survive the process in control, because they will have lost the most important ally they'll ever have in regard to defending AA from outside competitve forces. It's an ally that can scatter quickly and willingly to more desirable areas leaving a cold chill blowing through the halls of Centreport.