Originally Posted by
NoHandHold
Lol @ Shrinking to adsorb the retirements. Lets do some math here.
What is it at delta, 5.5 crews per airplane? Sure...lets just use that for kicks. At their peak they will lose about 800 pilots a year, thats about 73 airplanes a year or 7 airplanes per month they will need to bench to keep up with retirements. Some of you really think that will happen? LOL
I just think some of you enjoy being pessimistic, but this isnt rocket science. Hiring booms and busts are a fact. Some last longer than others...this boom might last really long...and it might not. My bet is really long.
A certain amount of absorption will occur in the beginning but how long can that last? SWA crews 10.8 pilots per aircraft. Below are Delta's retirements numbers post merger. Assuming 10.8 pilots per aircraft that's a lot of parked planes:
2012 17
2013 80
2014 195
2015 269
2016 330
2017 367
2018 448
2019 524
2020 622
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2,835 through 2020 = 262 aircraft parked
2021 734
2022 551 (No NWA data after 2021)
2023 526
2024 521
2025 455
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5,622 through 2025 = 520 parked aircraft (SANS NWA retirements after 2021)