Originally Posted by
Sr. Barco
A certain amount of absorption will occur in the beginning but how long can that last? SWA crews 10.8 pilots per aircraft. Below are Delta's retirements numbers post merger. Assuming 10.8 pilots per aircraft that's a lot of parked planes:
2012 17
2013 80
2014 195
2015 269
2016 330
2017 367
2018 448
2019 524
2020 622
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2,835 through 2020 = 262 aircraft parked
2021 734
2022 551 (No NWA data after 2021)
2023 526
2024 521
2025 455
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5,622 through 2025 = 520 parked aircraft (SANS NWA retirements after 2021)
Numbers and reality blow gaping holes through a lot of the opposing arguments. How one can argue with facts is beyond me.
The real Xfactor is the economy, jatropha fuel, and US deriven shale oil. IF these things take off....fuhgettaboutit...we'll be talking signing bonuses...loan forgiveness...etc.
And those last two are not hocus pocus...we are the Saudi Arabia of shale oil...and jatropha fuel is already being tested and used.