Originally Posted by
galaxy flyer
Over 8 years, DL would only need to hire a little under 370 pilots per year, hardly difficult. There are plenty of RJ and ex-mil guys to meet that even multiplied by all the mainline carriers. Certainly there is room for more consolidation at the majors, the reduction in RJ flying, certain to happen in the 50-seat ranks, will throw off applicants.
GF
Airline Pilot Central - Regional
Using the above link I found there are 9,905 regional airline pilots in the U.S. The major airlines listed below could hire every one of them in the next 8 years and still be short 2,239 pilots. They still need another approximately 11,500 pilots over the 5 years after that.
With regard to military pilots, If fly with F/O's every week who are currently in guard units, reserve squadrons or were active duty within the past few years. They tell me the majority of their military buds do not trust the airlines and are staying in the military. Minimum commitment is 10 years after flight training. Pay is way up in the military and I've heard of retention bonuses of $100,000.
Unless the current rules change the majors could hire every single regional airline pilot in the U.S. over the next 8 years and then hire 13,700 retiring military pilots over the 5 years after that and just be breaking even.
These are staggering numbers. I just don't see the U.S. carriers shrinking by 50% in the next 13 years. I also don't see how the regionals will be around in 10 years.
Total retirements for SWA+UAL+DAL+USAir:
2013 937
2014 1,198
2015 1,309
2016 1,423
2017 1,558
2018 1,670
2019 1,881
2020 2,104
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Through 2020= 12,144
2021 2,447 (Beyond 2021 no data for NWA)
2022 2,276
2023 2,363
2024 2,400
2025 2,348 (Beyond 2025 no data for USAir or AA)
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(23,978 through 2025)