Could be. It could be that the only hope in the regional industry is consolidation, just like the majors. Size could potentially allow enough economy of scale to allow for more competitive bidding even while paying pilots better. It could also mean airlines could take measures so they are not wholly depending on one legacy major for their survival, thus improving their negotiating position.

It's sad to say, and I wish only the best for every pilot out there, but some of the current regionals I think need to fail, and others to consolidate. Too many and too easy to play one off the other these days. Great for the majors, but bad for the little guys.

That all being said, the bottom line for the hope of increased pilot pay is pure supply and demand. For as long as I can remember, the regionals have had an unlimited supply of pilots to use. If they need more, they lower their mins. Unless hiring at 250/25 wouldn't net enough pilots, they could always go lower and find eager applicants. Unions could prop up wages somewhat, but that was always a losing game in the end, because as soon as one labor group got too expensive, a new, cheaper airline (think Independence Air, GoJets, etc) would be started in its place. There was always someone dirt cheap to play off of.

The hope for the future lies in a genuine pilot shortage. It is the only thing in a free market, even one with Union support, that will drive wages higher, period. We need more demand, and less supply. The new rest requirements and Age 65 retirements should help the demand side, and the new ATP requirements and hard to find financing should help on the supply side. Growth in the US with an improving economic outlook, and well as growth oversees siphoning off some pilots could help as well. Will it be enough? I think we will start to see in the next year or two.

It's easy to see that management is worried about this. Expressjet has talked about new agreements with universities to guarantee jobs for students graduating from certain flight programs, and then guaranteeing them interviews at a major down the road. They are worried about their supply of cheap labor. They are starting to think that the game over the next five years is going to be who can keep the pipeline to less expensive labor open and flowing, and who can't.

That's why I left a better paying gig - to take a shot at it. There's a genuine chance this could unfold in the pilot group's favor for once. Maybe. But it's worth a shot.