Originally Posted by
drrhythm2
Could be. It could be that the only hope in the regional industry is consolidation, just like the majors. Size could potentially allow enough economy of scale to allow for more competitive bidding even while paying pilots better. It could also mean airlines could take measures so they are not wholly depending on one legacy major for their survival, thus improving their negotiating position.
It's sad to say, and I wish only the best for every pilot out there, but some of the current regionals I think need to fail, and others to consolidate. Too many and too easy to play one off the other these days. Great for the majors, but bad for the little guys.
That all being said, the bottom line for the hope of increased pilot pay is pure supply and demand. For as long as I can remember, the regionals have had an unlimited supply of pilots to use. If they need more, they lower their mins. Unless hiring at 250/25 wouldn't net enough pilots, they could always go lower and find eager applicants. Unions could prop up wages somewhat, but that was always a losing game in the end, because as soon as one labor group got too expensive, a new, cheaper airline (think Independence Air, GoJets, etc) would be started in its place. There was always someone dirt cheap to play off of.
The hope for the future lies in a genuine pilot shortage. It is the only thing in a free market, even one with Union support, that will drive wages higher, period. We need more demand, and less supply. The new rest requirements and Age 65 retirements should help the demand side, and the new ATP requirements and hard to find financing should help on the supply side. Growth in the US with an improving economic outlook, and well as growth oversees siphoning off some pilots could help as well. Will it be enough? I think we will start to see in the next year or two.
It's easy to see that management is worried about this. Expressjet has talked about new agreements with universities to guarantee jobs for students graduating from certain flight programs, and then guaranteeing them interviews at a major down the road. They are worried about their supply of cheap labor. They are starting to think that the game over the next five years is going to be who can keep the pipeline to less expensive labor open and flowing, and who can't.
That's why I left a better paying gig - to take a shot at it. There's a genuine chance this could unfold in the pilot group's favor for once. Maybe. But it's worth a shot.
I agree with your statement, we live in a nation that the government will allow the airlines to influence their design making for example;
Age 65 rule: (helped pilots who lost their pensions, but allowed management to maintain a surplus of pilots)
ATR/1500 hr rule: This should have been made a law in years past, but we have to wait almost 4 years for it to be implemented and we still don't have all the details about it.
Rest rules: same as above, why does it take 2 years for "companies and unions to bargain"?
The airlines will continue to cry could and influence the government! For this of you that don't know, last fall the CEO of American Eagle attended the White House to lobbie against the 1500 hr rule and the rest requirements, citing the following.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/defa...10122011-1.pdf
The supply of qualified pilots in the U.S. is already tight due to a number of factors, including (a) growth of travel world-wide, especially in Asia, (b) reduced numbers of pilots from the military, (c)
reduced attractiveness of the commercial pilot profession, and (d) the added burden of financing training costs
Industry-wide, the number of FAA issued Airline Transport Pilot certificates decreased almost 60% from 1999 to 2009 (7,173 to 2,895)
Total number of active pilot certificates held in the U.S. dropped by 9% from 2000 to 2009, from 608,079 to 554,237
• The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) predicts that this number will continue to decline, to 500,000 by 2014
• The pilot supply situation is expected to worsen due to both the 1/1,500 Hour Rule" provision of HR 5700 and mandatory retirement at age 65
• The regional industry's experience in 2011 indicates that the supply of new pilots is already an issue at regional carriers, without the application of the
1,500 Hour Rule or the NPRM
.
In addition to mandatory retirements and others issues impacting the pilot supply pipeline industry-wide, Regionals face the added burden of losing pilots to mainline partners due to pass-through agreements and wage differentials
• Then, once the 1,500 Hour Rule takes effect, roughly 50% of current new hire pilots at regional airlines would not be eligible candidates, significantly impacting the ability of regional carriers to maintain necessary staffing levels
• Finally, overlaying the added requirements of the NPRM would be especially burdensome to regional carriers
The 9.6% pilot shortfall estimated by the ATA as a result of the NPRM translates to the need for almost 7,200 additional pilots industry-wide
Although mainline carriers may be able to source additional pilots from the regional carriers, the Regionals, given current difficulties and the 1,500 hour rule, will have no new source
These were his recommendations
NPRM
1. 95% Schedule Reliability - Reporting and adjustments of Flight Duty Periods should be based on maximum charted FDPs, not on the scheduled FDP published by the air carrier
2. FOP Extensions - Air carriers shou ld be allowed to extend the charted FOP a maximum of 2 hours on a "day of" basis for items not under control ofthe air carrier (i.e . weather, ATe, mechanical issues); FOPs should not be able to be extended on consecutive days, but more than 1 time per 168 hour (7 day) period
3. Short Call Reserve - Time spent on short call reserve should not be included as part of duty, until the pilot is called and notified of his/her assignment
4. Phasing of Rule - A "knife edge" implementation would be extremely burdensome for air carriers
5. Correction of Problem Pairings - Quarterly with 90 day window
1,500 Hour Rule
1. Training Credit - Accredited universities and FAA certified commercial flight schools 2. Military Pilot Exemptions
3. Grandfathering - Of currently employed, trained and qualified pilots
4. Modification of 121 AirCarrier Training for low experience pilots