Originally Posted by
Senior Skipper
First off, very nice work.
I looked at the total pilot demand page, and saw how it would affect the regional industry. From those numbers, assuming all RJ pilots go to majors, and majors hire only RJ pilots, 50% of today's present RJ pilots will be gone by 2019.
The way I interpret that is that somebody who's starting at a regional now will be looking at an upgrade in the next 6-7 years. Add another 1.5 years to get the PIC time, and you've got 9 years from regional newhire to major newhire.
Armed with that, I'd advise people looking at regionals now to carefully consider which airline you go to. No sense looking for the quick upgrade, because it isn't likely to happen. Go somewhere you can see yourself being happy for the next decade.
While that's sound advice in and of itself, people will agressively pursue the airlines with the quickest upgrades as well as deal their managements an ace to be the lowest bidder to get the next AC bid. Many pilots will see upgrades less than 9 years once their is movement, even if the average remains about that. PFT has been replaced with pay for upgrade with a crappy contract and predatory bargaining.