For my part, thanks for publishing your estimate. I did a similar calculation last year to decide whether to stay at a regional at that point or move on, though not as complete as yours.
Any calculation I see adds more information to take into consideration, it's clear that unless you are in the top 30% of a "good regional" seniority AND at least 45 years of age you're better off moving on. I think the risk/reward of staying at a regional becomes the better option at that point unless you get on to UPS/FedEx.
We all know that the actual movement will radically change with just small changes in the industry but we still need some sort of calculation in order to try and make the best decision for our careers.