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Old 06-04-2012 | 06:37 AM
  #94  
johnso29
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From: B757/767
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot
This is to Slow too.

I'm telling you what is possible with the language. Slow knows it. My point is that the ratios do not guarantee growth. Slow has stated that. The 717's are a vehicle to get 76 seat jets. DAL wants them in the long term fleet plan, but the fleet plan changes as we all know. As Slow and I went back and forth on last week, the information coming out about the 717 leases is that we are getting them from Boeing but assuming the duration. If this is in fact the case, the first one can start leaving in 2017 with the last ones leaving in 2024.

40 growth aircraft that allow 70 76 seat aircraft is not even a 1:1 exchange. Keep that in mind. Once they are all here(end of 2015) there is nothing that forces the fleet count(domestic) to remain at or above that new level. The ratio as I described only guarantees today's block hr plan (with a slight, very slight varriance)and DCI shrinking as we go through the refleeting. After this is complete the ratio stays at 1.59-1. We are projected to be at 1.76-1.

As I described we will still be the accumulator in the system. In the end state the pilot not yet on property will be the ones that are not protected, not any of us. We will be about the size we were at soc but on lower paying jets(767's and 757's are going to be parked Denny) and that is all figured in to the fleet plan and the ratios.

This deal will trigger hiring at some point but based on DAL's comments about capacity discipline it will not be this year and will more than likey be late 2013. This is possible because of our work rule changes. If we do not get the early out to net 250+ there will be displacements from the changes in this TA before the 717's and 739's even show up. The 757's and 767's that they first plan to park are the only variable. They keep those we hire sooner, but that is not part of the block hr or current fleet plan.

I know you are more concerned about wide body jets because that is where you sit, and that makes sense, but you need to realize that the domestic side of your category is part of this ratio and can be flexed or reduced without unilateral actions at DCI, and it's part of the ratios.

Slow wants to portray this as all upside, but it's not. The language have a vehicle for refleeting but no promise of growth and no one way check valve one all of the 76 seat and 717's are delivered. There are growth airframes but since they can be flexed up or down, that is capt jobs by current seniority pilot that can be removed after we reach the end state of the 717/76 refleeting plan.

Unfortunately, the refleeting with lower paying airplanes is happening regardless. At least with 737-900ERs coming in for 757's. But the unknown is will the 717's and 76 seaters coming in result in 320's & MD88's being parked? Are we trading higher paying positions for lower paying used 717's? The global economy will certainly have an effect, but I think that's an unknown. Analysts have been predicting a collapse for years. Maybe it will still happen, maybe it won't. If the US economy stays good, maybe 757's will stay around resulting in growth? It seems to me you are correct on us being an accumulator to start, but eventually it goes to DCI.

I feel this Sec 1 has potential to be good. The real question is is that potential worth what's being offered?