padre2992

George, not a great job at all.

Your examples above mean the network shrinks by the volume loss of DCI. No one inside or outside of the company is forecasting that.

Delta's planned network growth is 1% or greater.

Your charts above assume DCI utilization apparently normal for the 450 planned aircraft, yet if so, where do the passengers go when the network shrinks? Delta freely sends them to United or SWA or ?. Not likely and it invalidates your charts. This is an example of someone desperately searching for a reason to say "no' that manufactures things to fit into his tin foil hat.

Bad info.

georgetg

Not at all.

In the end, Delta can grow mainline at any ratio the company pleases as long as it is above 1.56

It's just that the protections were engineered for the extreme case to keep our current block-hours nearly flat with a reduction of DCI by 25%.

What the block-hour ratio doesn't do is provide for a mechanism to transfer flying to mainline.

If DCI block hours really are reduced by 25% (not the plan IMHO) we would need a 1.92:1 ratio to capture the block-hour reduction at DCI and transfer it to mainline. That would not be a capacity neutral swap because mainline block-hours generate significant more capacity than DCI block-hours.

The end of capacity discipline is the only real mechanism that brings back flying to mainline, with or without the TA.

Cheers
George

bigbusdriver

Every rep I have spoken to has said that the ratio requires DCI to shrink and is not intended to force mainline to grow. DCI shrinking by almost 25% even if we don't grow looks pretty good to me. RA is directly quoted "We would mostly use them to replace inefficient 50-seat regional jets." It might be a stretch but my maths say you can't replace 50 seat block hours with 717s AND maintain your graph ratios showing mainline NOT growing AND DCI shrinking 24,7%??? Every other poster has said RA doesn't lie. Either the business plan is to replace 50 seat lift or it's a trick. Either way your graphs seem to proof in a worst case scenario that DCI shrinks in block hours and planes.

georgetg

If the intent was to shrink DCI wouldn't we have set up the relationship where Mainline sets the bar for DCI?

You are confusing capacity and block-hours...

The two leashes put on DCI by the TA are:
-block-hours
-airframes

We chose block-hours, because it most closely tracks pilot jobs.
One block hour = two guys getting paid one unit of their respective hourly rate

Block-hours are not aircraft or utilization specific.
Delta can fly one fleet a lot and another a little to get the block-hours, or spread it out evenly.

The DCI block-hours are the same, a 50-seater or a 76-seater for each hour of operation generate 1 block-hour...

All I am saying is this:

Delta can fly any block-hour ratio they want but once all 76-seaters are here it can be no less the 1.56.

While 1.56 sounds better than 1.19 (our current actual ratio) DCI will be producing fewer block-hours and we will be multiplying those fewer block hours by 1.56 to get to the minimum mainline block-hours required.

The middle bar graph shows how with DCI block-hours reduced by 25% the "protection" offered by 1.56 produces a mainline block-hour floor that is below the current number of mainline block-hours.

My reps have confirmed that that is indeed the case.
I suggest you go though the numbers exercise for yourself.

Cheers
George

P.S.: Since you want to talk capacity: Capacity is measured in ASMs.
At the same number of block-hours, up gauging produces more, down gauging produces fewer ASMs.
Our block-hour ratio has nothing to do with capacity...

forgot to bid

Where have you seen a forecasted growth or 1% of greater?

And the bigger question is, if we continue with the 1% reduction trend that we have been doing, does mainline have to grow with this TA? Or can you go to 1.56 ratio on DCI 450/325 without growing mainline?