Originally Posted by
padre2992
...Your charts above assume DCI utilization apparently normal for the 450 planned aircraft, yet if so, where do the passengers go when the network shrinks? Delta freely sends them to United or SWA or ?. Not likely and it invalidates your charts...
Not at all.
In the end, Delta can grow mainline at any ratio the company pleases as long as it is above 1.56
It's just that the protections were engineered for the extreme case to keep our current block-hours nearly flat with a reduction of DCI by 25%.
What the block-hour ratio doesn't do is provide for a mechanism to transfer flying to mainline.
If DCI block hours really are reduced by 25% (not the plan IMHO) we would need a 1.92:1 ratio to capture the block-hour reduction at DCI and transfer it to mainline. That would not be a capacity neutral swap because mainline block-hours generate significant more capacity than DCI block-hours.
The end of capacity discipline is the only real mechanism that brings back flying to mainline, with or without the TA.
Cheers
George