Ok.
At the risk of getting way off into hypothetical land, let's use some actual numbers from the TA. I will note my assumptions where applicable.
Delta 737-700/800 5-year FO rate on 1/1/2013 (1 day after our amendable date): $124.20
*I don't know what category you're in, but this seems a fair category to compare with a SWA FO. The numbers obviously get better or worse depending on longevity/category, but I digress....
Let's ASSUME an average of 80 hours/month which is definitely doable at straight pay for a lineholder, without stalking the swap board. ALPA says the "average" Delta pilot averages 87/month, so I'm undershooting by a whole lot here.
$124.20 x 80 hours = $9936/month
$9926 x 12 months = $119,232
Add in 14% DSPS/DC Contribution = $119,232 x 1.14 = $135,924.48
So, we have the day after our amendable date, a 5-year FO making about $4,000 less than your $140,000 figure. I'm not figuring in Distance Learning or any other pay/no credit item that will close the gap a little bit. SWAPA's number is subject to a bunch of assumptions as well, that I'm not privy to.
Is it close enough?
How about 1 year later on 1/1/2015 when pay goes up another 3% and DC bumps 1%? The Delta number (with another longevity step) = $144,778.56
I find the fascination with SWA pay interesting. Do we just want to be paid more than them for some competitive reason, or is being paid much better than we currently are okay too?
It seems to me that we're not that FAR off the mark. Consider the odds of dramatically exceeding the current offer in short order just because we "demand" it. I just don't see the unlikely payoff outweighing the risk. But that's just me
As always, I appreciate the civil discussion guys. We can disagree and still keep it clean!