Originally Posted by
PurpleKoolAid
What he said.
Ain't gonna happen.
Hint: Next time it looks like The Shortage is happening, better cash out your stocks, 'cause pilot hiring frenzy ALWAYS predicts the impending economic crash. (Or in one case the President bypasses due process and with the stroke of a pen increases retirement age 5 years - didn't see that one coming, did ya?...)
The forty-some years I've seen has always been like that. There's always something that derails it, some sinister (airline lobbyists getting the laws changed) but mostly just economics.
Moral of the story: Don't bet on it. (Bet against it and you'll probably get a lot richer.)
Yeah, and the U.S. has essentially been in a sustained bull market since the 1930's, and that's all that anyone has observed. If the lessons of finance and history can teach us anything, people weigh the data of the past too heavily, and turns in the market occur exactly when everyone is seemingly in consensus that the trend will continue.
There will be a pilot shortage eventually, but it'll be as a result of forces greater than those simply generated by the aviation industry.