I think there will be pilots up front for a long time but their decision making authority and ability to impact the flight will continue to reduce to zero. There are no pensions to pay as it is. Pilots are becoming the cheap component of aviation. There is no reason to remove the people up for for the psychological benefit of the passengers. Besides if there are pilots up front there is a built in depository for blame should something go wrong.

The problem with a sole-less job that pays nothing is that the company needs to find people who will do it. When Henry Ford first opened his model T factory they had a hard time filling the assembly line. They went out across the country to hire the best artisans and craftsmen however once they reached the heartless repetition of the assembly line they would promptly quit.

There was no creative outlet or artistry involved in stamping out sheet metal parts and besides that they had a greater value to the outside world as blacksmiths and wheelwrights. Therefore the Ford motor company had to hire people with little to no experience in making things with their hands to find a population group who would be satisfied with mindlessly stamping out parts. To them it was a great accomplishment.

Much is the same today with the airlines. They like to hire 300 hour wonders at the regionals because they don't know any better. They have not had the time to develop the skills and satisfaction from putting together a difficult flight from scratch. They don't know what it is like to go to places unknown, solve problems on their own or to know what it is like to be truly in command.

The only thing holding the experienced pilots was the money. Take that away and they leave. When I was at Horizon Air I was the lowest time guy in my new hire class with 4000 hours. At the time they had a retention rate of 10%. Most quit within 5 years. A year later they started to hire 300 hour wonders even though there were experienced guys in the waiting room. As a result their retention times went up.

300 hour wonders do not get bored or complain. Nor do they have many options when it comes to moving on. The best part is that the plane does not need a life long artisan pilot anymore. Automation, procedure and standardization has integrated the pilot into the computer system. Young people today come well versed in letting the computer do everything and are happy to let it.

Make no mistake automation has taken over the flight deck. Many of you just don't know it or perhaps you are flying 30 year old technology. The point is that we are entering the age where the "pilot is prevented from flying the plane". Maybe not your plane and maybe not yet but it is here none the less and the advent of the 300 hour assembly line made airline pilot is added proof.

Skyhigh