Advance of automation
06-27-2012 | 08:47 AM
#81
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Joined: Nov 2011
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From: Web Designer/Developer
Truth. Not even close. I'll even expand on Rick's reason why, with one word:
NextGen.
How long has some version of NextGen been in the works? To my very specific knowledge, at least as far back as the mid '90s. While some advances have been made toward that effort, we are still not close to having a fully developed version of NextGen out there. If it has taken at least two decades just to push THAT out the door, how in the world does anyone think that mass automated flight is around the corner?
Barring The Singularity, I don't think any of us of working age will live to see fully automated passenger and freight flight. As someone pointed out earlier... they haven't even automated the vast majority of train traffic yet. What makes you think that air traffic will get automated on a mass scale before that happens?
NextGen.
How long has some version of NextGen been in the works? To my very specific knowledge, at least as far back as the mid '90s. While some advances have been made toward that effort, we are still not close to having a fully developed version of NextGen out there. If it has taken at least two decades just to push THAT out the door, how in the world does anyone think that mass automated flight is around the corner?
Barring The Singularity, I don't think any of us of working age will live to see fully automated passenger and freight flight. As someone pointed out earlier... they haven't even automated the vast majority of train traffic yet. What makes you think that air traffic will get automated on a mass scale before that happens?
06-27-2012 | 10:59 AM
#82
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2009
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From: Square root of the variance and average of the variation
Not at all. Ford turned people away because he had too many applicants for the assembly line. They came in droves because he offered $1 an hour more than anyone else did. They came to Detroit on their own, building it into a major industrial city. Sorry, as a 32 year Detroiter with Ford workers in the family, could not let that one slide...
06-27-2012 | 11:04 AM
#83
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From: Square root of the variance and average of the variation
Planes may be "pilot proof" but the Achilles heel will always be the software. Confident the sub-sub-sub contractor programmer sitting in the cubicle 16 hours a day in some third world country has correctly coded all those ones and zeros?
Somebody has got to be able to hit the Ctrl-Alt-Delete.
Somebody has got to be able to hit the Ctrl-Alt-Delete.
06-27-2012 | 11:35 AM
#84
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From: Retired FDX MD11 Capt
>FedEx founder Fred Smith came by the Wired offices yesterday for a chat on a range of things, but I'll focus here on the bit relevant to this site. He says that they'd like to switch their fleet to UAVs as soon as possible but that this will have to wait for the FAA, which has a tough road ahead in figuring out the rules of NAS integration. Unmanned cargo freighters have lots of advantages for FedEx: safer, cheaper, and much larger capacity. The ideal form is the "blended wing" (example shown). That design doesn't make a clear a distinction between wings and body, so almost all the interior of both can be used for cargo. The result is that the price premium for air over sea would fall from 10x to 2X (with all the speed advantages of air).
As he notes, a modern 777 is already capable of being an unmanned vehicle. "They let the pilots touch the controls for about 20 seconds, to advance the throttles, and then the plane takes over," he said, only half-kidding. The truth is that the plane can take off, fly and land itself. Today pilots drive the planes on the ground, but there's no reason why the computer can't do that, too. Sully's a hero, but Smith's perspective is that humans in the cockpit make the airways more dangerous, not less.
Because the FAA rules are not in place, nobody's built that perfect blended wing UAV for FedEx yet. But Smith believes it's only a matter of time. As he notes, the key thing is having NO people on board, not even as backup. A single person in the craft requires a completely different design, along with radically different economics and logistics. The efficiencies come with 100% robotic operation.<
So Fred Smith says it will only work if the aircraft doesn't have a pilot on it. Does anyone really think we will see passengers get on an automated aircraft in our lifetime?
I say that because all traffic would have to be automated. You can't have a freighter going to ORD with storms and everyone else deviating. Who controls the UAV? The controller? Or does he take precious time to relay the instructions to someone else. What about the first time one goes down in the tropics due to weather? Is there weather avoidance? How? Radar only paints rain. Go through the ITCZ and you will get spanked relying on just the radar.
As he notes, a modern 777 is already capable of being an unmanned vehicle. "They let the pilots touch the controls for about 20 seconds, to advance the throttles, and then the plane takes over," he said, only half-kidding. The truth is that the plane can take off, fly and land itself. Today pilots drive the planes on the ground, but there's no reason why the computer can't do that, too. Sully's a hero, but Smith's perspective is that humans in the cockpit make the airways more dangerous, not less.
Because the FAA rules are not in place, nobody's built that perfect blended wing UAV for FedEx yet. But Smith believes it's only a matter of time. As he notes, the key thing is having NO people on board, not even as backup. A single person in the craft requires a completely different design, along with radically different economics and logistics. The efficiencies come with 100% robotic operation.<
So Fred Smith says it will only work if the aircraft doesn't have a pilot on it. Does anyone really think we will see passengers get on an automated aircraft in our lifetime?
I say that because all traffic would have to be automated. You can't have a freighter going to ORD with storms and everyone else deviating. Who controls the UAV? The controller? Or does he take precious time to relay the instructions to someone else. What about the first time one goes down in the tropics due to weather? Is there weather avoidance? How? Radar only paints rain. Go through the ITCZ and you will get spanked relying on just the radar.
Old news. Automation is no where near flexible enough to handle abnormals, emergencies, haz wx, traffic conflicts, etc.
Not coming soon.
Regards,
Clutch
06-27-2012 | 02:49 PM
#85
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,738
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From: Sleeping in the black swan’s nest.
Hoss,
You are one of my best friends here. I really do not like crushing your hopes too badly. Sometimes I can tell that you are struggling so I back off.
You are one of my best friends here. I really do not like crushing your hopes too badly. Sometimes I can tell that you are struggling so I back off.
Lets get something perfectly clear. You and I are not friends we will never be friends.
You of all people could not "crush" my "hopes". You have no idea what my hopes, wants and desires are and to claim otherwise are nothing more than your sociopathic personality traits peaking through the thinly veiled curtain of internet anonymity.
You make unsupported claims then congratulate yourself on your own unsupported conclusions. You pretend to be an expert on matters that you haven't slightest clue about. In general you are a bitter person and a blowhard who has a ridiculous agenda of trying to punish anybody who hasn't failed at the same endeavors in which you have so spectacularly failed at.
I don't associate with people like you. I will happily however, refute any and all untruths, slights and misrepresentations that you so gleefully spew forth on this site.
You see Sky, what APC is really all about for you is the ability to actually "talk to and hang out with" real life airline pilots. As there aren't any who'd give your rationalizations and personality faults more than about 5 polite minutes face to face before they were outta there in the real world.
07-01-2012 | 06:12 AM
#86
Thread Starter
Self Employed.
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 7,120
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From: Corporate Pilot
Hoss
SH,
Lets get something perfectly clear. You and I are not friends we will never be friends.
You of all people could not "crush" my "hopes". You have no idea what my hopes, wants and desires are and to claim otherwise are nothing more than your sociopathic personality traits peaking through the thinly veiled curtain of internet anonymity.
You make unsupported claims then congratulate yourself on your own unsupported conclusions. You pretend to be an expert on matters that you haven't slightest clue about. In general you are a bitter person and a blowhard who has a ridiculous agenda of trying to punish anybody who hasn't failed at the same endeavors in which you have so spectacularly failed at.
I don't associate with people like you. I will happily however, refute any and all untruths, slights and misrepresentations that you so gleefully spew forth on this site.
You see Sky, what APC is really all about for you is the ability to actually "talk to and hang out with" real life airline pilots. As there aren't any who'd give your rationalizations and personality faults more than about 5 polite minutes face to face before they were outta there in the real world.
Lets get something perfectly clear. You and I are not friends we will never be friends.
You of all people could not "crush" my "hopes". You have no idea what my hopes, wants and desires are and to claim otherwise are nothing more than your sociopathic personality traits peaking through the thinly veiled curtain of internet anonymity.
You make unsupported claims then congratulate yourself on your own unsupported conclusions. You pretend to be an expert on matters that you haven't slightest clue about. In general you are a bitter person and a blowhard who has a ridiculous agenda of trying to punish anybody who hasn't failed at the same endeavors in which you have so spectacularly failed at.
I don't associate with people like you. I will happily however, refute any and all untruths, slights and misrepresentations that you so gleefully spew forth on this site.
You see Sky, what APC is really all about for you is the ability to actually "talk to and hang out with" real life airline pilots. As there aren't any who'd give your rationalizations and personality faults more than about 5 polite minutes face to face before they were outta there in the real world.
Hoss,
I understand what you are saying and would hate loosing you as a friend but if you really feel this way then perhaps you should put me on your ignore list because you tend to associate with me a lot here.
I can still be your friend though. I know that you don't like what I write about but privately you know what I am talking about. My aim here is to present the other side of aviation to those who are considering the profession. I believe that most who start on the path are fed false information and kept alive though self denial. I write with an eye to the future. In regards to automation I am sure that you will be able to ride off into the sunset with the A/P disengaged but hows about a 20 year old who is reading these forums? They could have as much as forty years of changes ahead of them. I think the odds are very slim that they will still be touching the controls for most of their career.
I write this stuff not because I want to hurt your feelings but to help drive the truth home to the next generation. I believe that most hold the same needs and expectations as I and they need to know what they are up against. If I were to guess I would say that my writings are offensive and threatening to you because they bruise the ego and threaten your self image. I am sorry for that, but please remember that I am critical of the industry and not of those who are in it.
You tend to write much of the same stuff elsewhere on the forums.
Skyhigh
Last edited by SkyHigh; 07-01-2012 at 06:53 AM.
07-01-2012 | 06:42 AM
#87
With The Resistance
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 6,191
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From: Burning the Agitprop of the Apparat
Not to interrupt the Sky/Airhoss love fest and support group, I found this article on automation interesting:
I, Not Robot: Why The Rise Of SkyNet Leads To Automatic Unemployment For The People | ZeroHedge
I, Not Robot: Why The Rise Of SkyNet Leads To Automatic Unemployment For The People | ZeroHedge
07-01-2012 | 06:59 AM
#88
Thread Starter
Self Employed.
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 7,120
Likes: 0
From: Corporate Pilot
Advance of automation
Not to interrupt the Sky/Airhoss love fest and support group, I found this article on automation interesting:
I, Not Robot: Why The Rise Of SkyNet Leads To Automatic Unemployment For The People | ZeroHedge
I, Not Robot: Why The Rise Of SkyNet Leads To Automatic Unemployment For The People | ZeroHedge
Captain
First Officer
Flight Engineer
Navigator
Radio Operator
Now all we really need is one half awake pilot and a guy in the other seat messing with his iPad3.
Automation is advancing everyday.Skyhigh
07-02-2012 | 01:17 AM
#89
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,738
Likes: 5
From: Sleeping in the black swan’s nest.
And it used to take a crew of 50 to run a 150' schooner, then it took 25 to run a 300' coal fired freighter. Now it takes 10 guys to run a super tanker.
When I was flying DC-8's as an F/O it was about 1/4 of the work load that is involved in flying the same seat on a 757/767/737/A-320/777 ETC ETC the captains work load has remained about the same. "Pitot heat whats to eat, radar vector equipped" on the Douglasaurus. An F/O on a 2 pilot flight deck has high work load especially in the take off and approach phases much higher than an older technology airplane. And the work load is WAY higher when stuff goes wrong, not having an engineer. As far as automation, sans auto throttles and auto land an autopilot has been capable of flying an airplane in all flight regimes since WW-II. The main things that have made life better are navigation ability and display and general reliability of engines and components.
As I've mentioned before misconceptions about automation are fairly common to the laymen.
When I was flying DC-8's as an F/O it was about 1/4 of the work load that is involved in flying the same seat on a 757/767/737/A-320/777 ETC ETC the captains work load has remained about the same. "Pitot heat whats to eat, radar vector equipped" on the Douglasaurus. An F/O on a 2 pilot flight deck has high work load especially in the take off and approach phases much higher than an older technology airplane. And the work load is WAY higher when stuff goes wrong, not having an engineer. As far as automation, sans auto throttles and auto land an autopilot has been capable of flying an airplane in all flight regimes since WW-II. The main things that have made life better are navigation ability and display and general reliability of engines and components.
As I've mentioned before misconceptions about automation are fairly common to the laymen.
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