I was curious what the Regional Pilot Demand looked like and so I ran some numbers. Calculating the amount of attrition each airline should see from the Mainline Industry(based on the sites Mainline model) plus the fleet shrinkage/growth the executives announce in their Annual Reports/Press Release's, we can calculate the demand for pilots over the next 8 years or so. We can even figure out based upon that number what someones seniority progression would look like up through about 50%, after that its hard to tell if the attrition will be above you in Seniority or Below.
I went ahead and took the data from the last annual reports for 2011, the companies projections for aircraft retirement and , and took the liberty to make a couple of assumptions to fill in the gaps. The model is tied to all of the regional airlines as the % of attrition to the majors due to their hiring needs is greatly affected by the overall size of the regional model(their all tied together). Subsequently the greater the regional market share an Airline has the greater slice of the attrition and vice verse.*
The Regional Attrition model is directly tied to the Mainline attrition model. Unlike the Major's where the primary source of attrition is the Retirements, the Regionals primary source of attrition is the Majors. Anyway this took a bit a coding, but its very easily updateable, so if we discover tomorrow an Airline is buying 15 700's from delta next year, I can easily put that in. So let me know if you discover any new Intel.
It does not take into account the 6-8% we will most likely see in pilot demand due to the new rest rules. Which might explain why some airlines seem a bit overstaffed and are still hiring. I think the percent seniority junior charts are very helpful for new-hires and FO's curious what the projected upgrade time is. Some of the Airlines are really in limbo right now like, Eagle and some of the Privately owned Airlines, for now until better information presents itself I just assume stagnant growth. Enjoy!
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/american-eagle/*
Compass | Audries Aircraft Analysis*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/gojet/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/horizon/*
Mesa | Audries Aircraft Analysis*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/piedmont/*
Pinnacle | Audries Aircraft Analysis*
TransStates | Audries Aircraft Analysis
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/skywest/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/expressjet/*
Republic | Audries Aircraft Analysis
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/silver/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/air-wisconsin/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/great-lakes/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/psa/*
Regional Airline Pilot Demand Comparison | Audries Aircraft Analysis