BenS,

Your whole premise is based on a static future. If things stay the same your projections might hold true but aviation is anything but static. Ask the Comair guys about how their plans are going.

The good news about being a Pizza delivery guy is that he has nothing invested into his career. His job is easily replaceable and he is building job skills that might hold value in plenty of other similar fields.

The pilot blows a small fortune on an under preforming career and then has to deliver pizza after sending a long day as a flight instructor. Pay might go up but you could also be kicked to the curb several times in your career. Add up the cost to get trained and educated to the lost years of low wages only to have to start over again and the whole thing gets depressing very fast.

The main issue is that conditions for pilots are not getting any better. You are basing your projections on the industry as it is today. Ten years from now and you will be selling furniture or worse wishing that you were. There is no profit in paying pilots a fair wage. Pressure is downwards on pay and working conditions.

It might work out but it is an incredible risk for the thin promise of ever earning a return on your investment. An expensive long shot with a dim future.

Skyhigh