Originally Posted by
rickt86
Eh maybe, this is where I disagree with you, and most of my Dads friends say otherwise as well. I think the lack of new applicants is going to make retention a huge issue for most RJ airlines. Add into that many people will start going to the majors here shortly, already looking at 1000 next year between United Delta and Usair pending no merger. I realize the real retirement numbers dont start for another 3-5 years, however most guys I know at LUAL are saying 62.5 is going to be the magic number. The larger RJs will replace the smaller ones, its just the ever changing business model of the airline and this country as an entity. The scary idea to me is more start ups like gojets to undercut already existing work groups, at a holding company. Luckily Gojet HAS faced hiring issues compared to places like Skywest, and I hope that only gets worst. Gojet is hiring from a different pool than Eagle and Skywest did last round. Gojet is sharing the great lakes and silver pool.
Well, we'll have to disagree. For the record, since coming to a legacy, I find the senior captains to be the least clued in to what's happening in the industry. I think many of the younger regional pilots are more in tune as they pay attention being at the beginning of their journey instead of coasting at the end.
The push for age 65 wasn't because most pilots only wanted to work to 62. Don't forget that the legacies can be choosy and it's been a decade since military pilots had a shot at any of them. Your assumption of a measly 1000 pilots might only nick a few hundred from all the regionals, which is nothing. It's going to take a lot more then that for a sustained period of time to show up in real movement and many regional pilots will be well into their 40's and 50's in 5-7 years.