Another FAM day today so maybe someone will share latest rumors.
Last somebody said they heard from the IAH puzzle palace is they were 47 short for Nov/Dec based on furlough acceptance. Sounds like they may have inserted some interns who were on site to make the plunge. Then again the 47 rumor could have been wrong as well. Who knows....and really its not a big deal in the long run.
Bottom line is they've gone and down the furlough list a few times and roughly 27% decided on the CAL reserve adventure. They got interns, job fair favorites and poolies from CAL and UAL in 07/08 but even those aren't that many.
They're 411 short by August next year and thats with only 70 some odd retirements only on the CAL side. The UAL side is fat right now but once those 65'rs head for the door (especially with a retro check) on that side they'll have vacancies appearing. Last update from UAL side was Q1 2013 they'll revisit the the manpower at UAL. I wouldn't expect a big bid even then as they'll run the UAL side lean as possible for as long as possible.
Long run, despite all the obvious Harvard MBA pilots on here UCH is going to follow the consumer and cater to capacity discipline. The beginning maturity of the US airline industry is at hand just like many other industries have matured in this country over the years. They have market power over the consumer and their unofficial cartel effect on the traveling public is beginning to payoff. That's a good thing for employees long run and it's about bloody time these airlines charged what it costs to fly.
Your services as pilots aren't much different than any commodity. If there's a bunch of bonehead pilots sitting around willing to go play with their favorite toys for 20K a year well airlines pay what the market will bare. Now, if we get a little harder to find then it goes back up incrementally based on need. We've bottomed out for sure. The RJ industry is in a free fall and reached the peak of their size recently and will very unlikely grow from here on out in the number of jet hulls operated if scope is held. RJ pilots in the next 5 years will become RT pilots (especially if they rengine that Q400 and fix the airframe problems). Narrowbodies will begin to look like a Havana bus at rush hour and there will be less choice and frequency for the consumer but nay, not to worry the prices will at least stay the same or go up.
It's all about fuel efficiency and pretty much everything that happens in your career as an airline pilot will be tied to the cost of fuel, how to burn less, fly more people, sell them more things and eek out every penny of cash flow from the passenger.
The CAL side is kicking off the recruiting drive. I don't think there will be a pilot shortage because there will never be a shortage of kids who want to go fly jets and if they can get the money-they'll be there in droves. But there will be a VACUUM of current qualified pilots that the majors will want as they're 65rs head for the door.
This is longwinded BS I know, thanks for playing. The point is you want to be at the beginning of that wave and seems to me UCH needs a few folks and that right soon. Get your pretty little tie on and get ready to do a little dance for interview team.