PilotAnalyst - Thanks for taking the time to look at this with analytical approach. That doesn't happen often enough.

I am not sure what to make of the FAs numbers and if they indicate growth or not. Did you take into account the recalled FAs? Also, I wonder if a higher increase in productivity is not out of the question with replacing 767s for smaller A321s and MD80s for smaller A319s.

One thing that I found interesting from that link was the number of a/c coming next year. I looked at the pilots per a/c for the ones leaving and the ones coming and I came up with a net need of 459 (I use the 737 utilization of 11.45 pilots per a/c for the Airbuses). According to my math this would be enough to offset a 5-6% productivity increase due to new work rules. I am guessing the new work rules might have a little more impact than that (7-8%?) but there will still be the new FT/DT rules, some retirements, and the inefficiency issues with all the training that should start once the Airbuses start showing up.

-Bob