Thanks for the intel everyone it is uploaded to website. It does bring the five year total closer to Horton's estimate. If we apply an 8% increase in pilot demand due to rest rules which is not included in the charts (although these may be washed out by increases in AA pilot work rule efficiency and PBS) it would bring the five year total up to just beyond 2000 pilots off the street. This does assume a 20% recall rate of remaining furloughs. If we add in that 20% to the total hiring that brings it up to just about 23-2400 pilots needed in the next 5 years, and the model could easily be off by by a couple hundred pilots.

BV your analysis is better than mine with an actual fleet pilot to aircraft ratio instead of a system average, plus when you consider the training gap you've mentioned that needs to be filled, 2500 is becoming more probable by the day.

In the end looking at the FA hiring may have been a red herring, particularly when we add in the recalled FA's and given their estimated productivity enhancements.