Yes, this next attempt has real potential for disaster. It's well known certain reps who were weak in the past are still rubbery, so what happens at the BOD level is one thing. The other thing is what happens at the line level. IMO, management believes and has possibly convinced the UCC that they can get a new agreement marginal on pay rates and still very weak on scope a 50%+1 approval from the pilots. The BOD promised the pilots no LBFO 2 and if they pass such a thing and try to sell it like last time, there will be an uproar and it will be APA on the defensive just like the company. Should that occur, they may convert some who were on the fence before, but others who voted yes previously are now angry, so I think such a TA would still fail. If the next TA fails, current APA leaders won't get a third chance and the UCC would then be left with either continuing to support Horton and presenting a stand alone plan with no pilots contract or turning to Parker who has 3 signed contracts in his pocket.

If Horton somehow succeeds in moving forward and exiting chapter 11 with the pilots in this situation, I believe senior pilot attrition will be severe next summer and there will be no ability for AMR to stop it and it will be devastating to AA ops and anyone who banked on equity like most of the creditors will lose large amounts of value and will be powerless to stop it. The only way to stop excessive attrition, would be a very good Industry leading contract, which means they end up paying more in the long run for putting themselves in a position of lost leverage.

Many pilots believe its better to wait until AA is out of bankruptcy to deal on a contract instead of negotiating a bankruptcy contract in bankruptcy. If a TA develops and is sent to the pilots that is perceived as LBFO 2, all it will likely do is ensure the UCC has the 2 clear cut choices above. Once out of bankruptcy, there IS no UCC that has any say about anything and they are then just hostages to a situation they have no control or influence of. I think that if that is the position they are in next summer, it means most of their value is tethered to a stock price that will probably plummet right out of the gate as AA likely begins it official (and possibly final) implosion. That's a very helpless place to be for bankruptcy creditors who once had influence but chose to join the philosophy of "kicking the can" for too long, which has proven to fail repeatedly.

Personally, I'm already a "no" vote as that is my mindset based on what I've heard. It will be up to AMR and the APA to convince me otherwise. Threats and intimidation need not apply. I consider myself a moderate and understand the present situation, so if its something even I can't swallow, it will indeed be a deal to walk away from regardless of the consequences. It should be a good show though, so stay tuned.