Exactly. Active working pilots can't accurately predict "career expectations" much less a furloughed guy.

"Career expectations" are a whimsical prediction at best. What percentage of expectations are being factored in for a downsize. what about another furlough? . What about a another "act of god" as mgt likes to call it, that affects the industry? I hope like heck none of this happens, but it could. We are all damn lucky that this merger didn't have a lot of overlap, or we could have been having this discussion over more layoffs instead of how our seniority may play out.

Neither CAL, nor UAL has been immune to the up and down swings of this industry. Ask the guy who retired 2 years after 9/11 after he lost all of his retirement if he "expected" that. Ask a guy who went on strike at EAL and watched his airline dismantled if he "expected" that. Did 99-01 UAL pilots "expect" to be furloughed from the grand airline that United was...heck no, they were hiring like crazy and upgrading guppy captains in 2 years.

I'm starting to ramble and I'm sure you get my point. I think that you have to almost use a "perfect world scenario" to entertain "career expectations" for a working pilot as much of a factor in seniority integration. I also think for a furloughed guy, it will have even less of a factor. I'm probably wrong, but that's just how I see it.

I don't claim to have the answer to "what's fair". I trust that both our groups have put their best guy in place to debate the seniority issue, and we will just have to live with the results whatever they may be.

I'll tell you this. I truly hope that we all have prosperous careers and that NONE of us have to suffer the heartbreak of a furlough. I have been blessed to never have to go through that, and I can only imagine the worry and stress, both financially and emotionally for the pilot and his family that must go along with it.

I will accept my position on the seniority list no matter if it means I'm the guy signing the release or if it means I'll jerk gear for a former LUAL guy.

Cheers to you man...and good holidays