your logic escapes me regarding the 5 years are here. not that you will have a large exodus, but the trickle that would have happened 5 years earlier.
Most mainlines will start to replace small narrow body aircraft with larger narrow body. Capacity stays the same, frequency drops. Same amount of passengers at half the pilot requirement. Same thing that is happening at regionals. Replacing as many 50 or less seat jets with larger 70-76 seat jets. Same capacity for passengers at half the pilot requirement.

if this was not true, mainlines would have started to hire larger amount of pilots rather than for just retirement replacement. stagnation will be upon us in 3 years again.

just a thought.