Originally Posted by eaglefly

Of the 7 senior captains I've talked to in the last few weeks, 1 is definitely flowing and 1 is undecided. 5 are staying. I ask THEM what the vibe is among those also senior in the top 800 or so with and without AA numbers and the ALL said the majority won't flow from those they talked to. Commuting on RSV for $40/hour isn't doable for most in their 40's and 50's with kids/mortgages and impending college costs. The risk of future furlough also adds to the risk adverse outlook.

The $100-140,000 pay and $1/$1 401(k) matching will be targeted when your carrier has to bid for your future flying and to get that flying, compensation like that will suffer as there are other carriers who can outbid that. How ?

By gradual transition allowing them to siphon the future new hires with fast upgrades due to their "new" feed contract. Eagle will have to be able to ratchet captain pay down to perhaps 5th or 6th year scale to meet that bid or lose out. I think you are underestimating what whipsawing can do and what will be necessary to keep more of your flying in the future. I think ALPA knows this and will cave and you WILL get a portion of that 76-seat flying, but compensation adjustment for those senior will be a sobering gut-punch. In fact, I've brought this up with those senior I've talked to and they say that they expect something like that and it's still better than the risk of flowing and they could still be senior with decent schedules and job security.

This summer when AA will theoretically begin dipping into the 846 pool along with street hires, I think you'll see it go through and past those in the top 1000 fairly quickly.