This should tell us if the "pilot shortage" is here or not.

I think you need to add the word "regional" in front of pilot shortage. Someone rightly pointed out that there are still Comair guys out there looking for work and Pinnacle will soon have a steady feed. No doubt these guys have their stuff in at the majors, but when the phone doesn't ring, any port in a storm!

Once all the Comair and pinnacle guys have been mopped up though, I agree that things will get very interesting at the regional level. Not only will companies like republic struggle to hire enough for their new flying, once the majors open their doors they are going to have a mass exedous to replace.