I think the number is much higher than 500, but it is probably spread out over 18 to 24 months. Their attrition is picking up with guys going to Spirit, Airways, Emirates, etc. Any Tier III FO that can leave is leaving, as well as most of the bottom 400 or so Captains. The FO's over there have had a belly full of BB, their union, and the top 300 - 500 lifer Captains. I don't think there is a single FO on their Negotiation Committee and they are fed up with the entire lot. With or without PIC time, if they can get out they will.

When the real hiring at the majors, Fedex, UPS, etc. picks up in summer or early fall that hew hire number will grow to 750 for this year and probably an equal number or greater next year. Don't forget they are not yet completely staffed for the Q's. Also, remember they need new hire FO's in place to begin the upgrade process for the Tier III guys.

In 2007 they hired nearly a 1,000. They can do it from a process standpoint. From a recruitment standpoint, that is a whole different consideration.

If they do not get this contract behind them, there is going to be a lot of really nasty smelling stuff coming the fan when planes are sitting waiting on pilots. Is there a pilot shortage? Not yet, because of the Pinnacle and Comair guys. But there will be at RAH within a year and potentially by fall.

My advice to anyone even thinking about going to RAH is get in NOW! Ask any of the guys who got hired from Sept 07 to March 08 over there how getting hired on the back end of a hiring wave at RAH works out.