In 2006, I had the initial paperwork for the bonus signed and faxed in. They were just waiting on a wet signature from me. I took a couple of calls and emails from AFPC that were essentially badgering me to sign the paperwork. I politely told them each time that I had until 30 September to sign it and that I was still thinking about it. I am sure glad I waited because I happily accepted a reserve opportunity that created a very pleasant and unexpected life vector for me and my family. I say this despite being furloughed from UAL after less than a year from getting hired. I freely admit there was a lot of divine intervention during these past years and have been well taken care of which I am very grateful.
At our squadron's "hail and farewell," my Ops Group commander told me and the other guy that were getting out that we were just "cogs in the wheel." This is from the same guy who as squadron commander of the 17th in CHS, grounded anyone who put their separation papers in. Although he was essentially correct, I would expect a little more class after 10 years of honorable active duty service. So, it is 2006, I separated from 10.5 years of active duty with a wife, 3 kids (age 4, 2, and 6 months)
To this day, I still feel and freely tell others that if they offered the 20 year bonus at the time, I would have stayed in (take 1/2 up front, invest..etc). Looking back on it, I am glad I did not and here is why:
Altus: 2004-2008 (would have left in 2008 if I did not separate)
Good flying assignment: 2008-2012 (at 16 year point and all flying gates met)
2012-2016: staff tour/non-flying (if I were in, this is what I would be doing right now)
So, in 2016, I would be finishing a staff tour at my 20 year point having not flown in the past 4 years. As a 20 year Lt Col with no flying in the last 4 years, what is the likelihood that the AF would send me back to a cockpit? That is still 3 years into the future. I think most reasonable people would feel as I do and think the chances are low that I would be able to return to the cockpit.
From a family perspective, my wife and I discussed if it would be easier to get out when my kids were 4,2, and 6 months old versus 14, 12, and 10. Each option had their own perceived challenges, but this was a big factor in our decision as well. Looking back these 6.5 years, it has been nice to see my kids grow up with the same friends and in the same school.
I guess my point is that I am glad that someone took the time to mentor me and tell me that whatever path I chose, that I would need to tackle either one with equivalent fervor because it would determine the course of your life for the next 10-20 years. If I chose to stay in, then I would need to become super Capt/Maj (volunteer for extra duties, get the schools done, etc.). If I chose to get out, I would need to aggressively get my ATP, FE written, and applications out.
It's a tough choice. Just take comfort in knowing that whatever path you choose is well travelled and well marked. Don't be afraid to ask for advice from those you respect and trust. Only you know what is best for you and your family and that can never, ever be stressed enough.
Now, with all that being said, if I were facing the decision today with what is going on with my active duty counterparts, I would try to get hired by a guard/reserve unit and separate in a New York minute!
Good luck!
C17D