Originally Posted by
Apokleros
Thanks for the dose of reality, guys. The way that the Wall Street Journal portrays things, they make it seem like the sky is about to fall down on us regarding this nonsense shortage of pilots. Yet wherever you look the flight schools are still cranking out pilots despite a drop in enrollment. It's still pretty competitive out there, so it's hard to take it at face value. The current state of affairs may change though with the wave of retirements coming up, but seeing is believing as they say....
The numbers don't lie. Those retirements have already started, and still don't reflect enough attrition for healthy movement. They will speed up in the next 5 years, but just not in any significant amount.
Check the pages on AirlinePilotCentral.com for accurate numbers under each airline for retirements. The numbers are insignificant compared to the numbers of pilots working here in the US. Not everyone turned 60 at the same time, and not everyone will turn 65 at the same time.
All numbers used to support an argument for a surge in pilot need are from overseas. They legitimately are hiring overseas. Unless you're a veteran of part 121 with verifiable experience in needed airframes, you're out of luck.