Eagle Upgrade/Hiring/Flow Through Information
Lots of facts about hiring/retirements/flow through that will affect the hiring/upgrade at Eagle:
Hiring Numbers
The most jr CA from the last bid result was a LAX SF3 spot, his DOH was 9/6/99.
From 9/6/99-12/31/00 there were 311 people hired.
-152 between 01/01 and 12/31/03. (THREE YEARS!!)
-258 between 01/04 and 12/31/04
-113 between 01/05 and 12/31/05
-234 between 01/06 and 11/27/06
Retirement Numbers
Next 10 years (assuming age 60):
Age Total
60 28
59 44
58 33
57 30
56 39
55 33
54 36
53 35
52 60
51 62
50 84
Flow Through Numbers
348 AA pilot flowbacks currently at Eagle.
394 AE Captains who have AA seniority numbers.
243 other AE Captains who have bid flowthrough, but do not have AA seniority numbers. Letter 3 is set to expire May 08.
American Airlines Retirement Numbers
Incase you are worried about recalls at AA. Here are the retirement numbers for the next 4 years at AA.
01/01/2007 - 12/31/2007 281
01/01/2008 - 12/31/2008 402
01/01/2009 - 12/31/2009 405
01/01/2010 - 12/31/2010 363
Currently there are 2,700 pilots on furlough from AA.
My prediction:
(Feel free to make your own based upon these numbers)
I bet by January 2008 (less than a year), upgrade time will drop to just around 4 years (instead of the current 8). By January 2009, I bet it will be in the 3 year zone. By January 2009, you will probably see everyone recalled to AA. There are currently 2700 on furlough with 1000 set to retire by that time. Assume 1/2 of AA pilots accept recall (that is semi-high). The 750 flow throughs with AA seniority numbers will probably leave Eagle. Over 100 Eagle captains will retire due to age 60. There are about 800 people who have been hired from the current most junior captain DOH through January 2006. And that is all assuming that no single Eagle captain or experienced FO leaves for another airline (which of course some will). You think hiring is crazy right now with Delta and Continental hiring. Imagine what it would be like when United, Northwest, US Air, and American also start hiring!! When American mainline starts hiring (and UAL who has an LAX and ORD base), you will see even faster attrition (like with Continental and ExpressJet).
What does that mean? I am predicting if you were hired in January 2006, your upgrade time will be 3 years. Eagle is hiring 700+ this year. So maybe it is time to stop ignoring Eagle due to their long upgrade time. If you get hired today, I would expect a 3 year upgrade...baring an economic recession.
What does everyone else think?
P.S. Thanks to the Eagle pilots on this forum who have provided this information through various threads!!