Originally Posted by
Bzzt
It's all speculation based on new feed contracts. This industry is incredibly fickle and attempting to guess upgrade times is hardly scientific. Like I've said before you're better off finding a place you would be comfortable working at in the long haul if unfortunately that happens.
The get in get out idea hasn't been the norm for well over a decade, the vast majority of regional pilots have been in their seats for quite awhile. Could that change? Absolutely, but nothing is guaranteed, especially not upgrade times.
No, no, no. Simply no. This is not finite mathematics. This is simple 4th grade math.
When a company with 60 airplanes and 480 pilots gets 49 new airplanes over the course of 3 years movement and upgrades happen.
60 airplanes with 480 pilots is approx. 12 pilots per plane, or 6 F/Os and 6 Capts. (My numbers are not exact, you have management pilots on that list, LOA pilots, MED leave pilots, instructor pilots, CA and FO numbers are not dead split.. etc)
So 49 new airplanes = 588 give or take pilots to be hired. If you divide the 480 by 2 = 240 current F/Os at Mesa that have been sitting in the right seat before the 2013 hiring started. 588/2 = 294 CA needed.
294-240 = 54 Pilots hired 2013 and after to upgrade given that every current FO can and will upgrade, no one leaves, no one is on LOA, and all those pilots have upgrade MINS.
I'm being very CONSERVATIVE with these numbers. So if you are less conservative , you account for those that can't upgrade, people who leave, retirements, etc, I think its fair to add 75-100 people to the upgrade list. Therefore 129-154 new pilots (hired 2013 and forward) will be able to upgrade as all the aircraft arrive.