Originally Posted by
prior121
No, no, no. Simply no. This is not finite mathematics. This is simple 4th grade math.
When a company with 60 airplanes and 480 pilots gets 49 new airplanes over the course of 3 years movement and upgrades happen.
60 airplanes with 480 pilots is approx. 12 pilots per plane, or 6 F/Os and 6 Capts. (My numbers are not exact, you have management pilots on that list, LOA pilots, MED leave pilots, instructor pilots, CA and FO numbers are not dead split.. etc)
So 49 new airplanes = 588 give or take pilots to be hired. If you divide the 480 by 2 = 240 current F/Os at Mesa that have been sitting in the right seat before the 2013 hiring started. 588/2 = 294 CA needed.
294-240 = 54 Pilots hired 2013 and after to upgrade given that every current FO can and will upgrade, no one leaves, no one is on LOA, and all those pilots have upgrade MINS.
I'm being very CONSERVATIVE with these numbers. So if you are less conservative , you account for those that can't upgrade, people who leave, retirements, etc, I think its fair to add 75-100 people to the upgrade list. Therefore 129-154 new pilots (hired 2013 and forward) will be able to upgrade as all the aircraft arrive.
I'm glad you're willing to guarantee those aircraft will be delivered with no reduction of older airframes AND guarantee Mesa will be able to find new hires to staff the new aircraft and thus create the captain vacancies necessary to upgrade pilots. You've got this all figured out don't you?
As to the pilot compensation being driven by lowest bidder contracts that is only partly true. Another part to that compensation is young adults with SJS willing to work for absolutely nothing because they believe the regionals are a stepping stone to a major job, over the last decade this has simply not been the case. If no one accepted job offers at bottom of the barrel regionals it wouldn't matter what those companies bid on the flying due to the fact they couldn't staff it. Thus overall compensation would increase.
Time to calm down and take your blood pressure medicine before you medical out and miss out on your magical quick upgrade and major job.