Originally Posted by
Gearjerk
Ok, I believe you. (Plus, I don't have any evidence to dispute your number.)
Now, how many of those will 'vote for the DPA', if a representational change came to vote?
Honest question. No condescension, name calling, or insults.
For example purposes, lets say that 90% of those who submitted a card, will vote in favor of DPA representation. (Assuming 10%, who are keeping their cards active to 'wake up' D-ALPA.) Your organization will need to garner 1,054 cards. Math computations below:
Nov. Seniority List:
11653
Majority of Sen. List: 11653/2 =
5827
90% of Cards to reach Majority: 6475(90%) =
5827.5
6475 CARDS needed to produce 5827 VOTES equals an additional 1,054 cards!!
Do you think that's possible Carl? Or DAL 88 Driver? If so, when? Before our next Section 6 negotiations? Or 'DURING' our negotiations, like last time?
Thanks,
GJ
No way to predict the answer to that question until after the vote. But you've made a sizable mistake in your premise. You need 50% plus 1 of all Delta pilots to call for a vote. You only need 50% plus 1 of pilots who actually vote to win the election and decertify ALPA. In your example of only 90% (or about 4,800) of the DPA cards actually voting to decertify, you're assuming that there are 4,801 Delta pilots that will actually vote to keep ALPA. Though I can't prove what I'm about to say, I think that will be an impossible hill for ALPA to climb. For example, an FO on my last trip was talking to me about DPA. He doesn't want to join because he doesn't like ALPA, but just doesn't want to turn in a card yet. When I asked if he'll vote if we actually get an election, he said absolutely and he'll vote for DPA...just not until we can actually force the vote.
So, ALPA's problems are threefold. One is the extremely strong voter activism among DPA card holders. Two is the unknown number of non-DPA card holders that intend to vote for DPA (against ALPA) if DPA can actually force an election. Three is the new change to labor law which only requires half plus 1 of the members who actually vote instead of half plus 1 of the total membership.
This is why ALPA now finally (and correctly) sees this as an existential threat to them, and why the Secret Police have been re-funded and re-activated. I predict ALPA will not go down before making this a bloody street fight with no prisoners taken.
Carl