Well seeming making predictions is in vogue today, my prediction: If the DPA calls for a vote they go down 60% to 40%, very similar to contract 2012. The silent majority of Delta Pilots have a long history of swinging elections when ready room talk/web board chat would indicate otherwise. Contract 1996 and 2012 come to mind.
I thought we are opening contract talks this spring, if so I sure hope this is settled before then.
In recent times every merger has been accompanied by a drive for a new union, remember the PPA ? The drives were always started by pilots who thought they got screwed in the mergers joined by the 15% of RD's who are convinced that ALPA is out to get them. The DPA was started by FNW pilots who again were angry at the outcome of the SLI rapidly joined by the traditional ALPA haters. The difference this time is the triple slam of; age 65 stagnation, bankruptcy and the ensuing wage and benefits rape, and the worst economy since the great depression all combining to make most everybody question everything from our companies to our union representation.
When I look at where the DL pilot group is compared to other US passenger airline groups and compare how the independent unions have done vis a vie DALPA I find no hope in the independents. Yes SWAPA is good but they are the model for constructive engagement. They got where they are today with small increases every year and bonuses every year from a very successful company. The APA will always be known for 3 failures: Turning down the most lucrative contract in the history of US airlines right before 9-11 (DL and ALPA were already predicting a downturn in US airlines a month before ). They fought fiercely against age 65 and couldn't even convince their own Congressman much less anyone else to vote against it. Last but not least, by demanding a home run in stalled contract negotiations they lost millions of unrecoverable dollars in compensation for their members. The fought the good fight but got their a$$es kicked. USAPA is a joke and I don't think I need to add anything to their resume except why is the DPA using the same legal group ? That's downright scary !
I always believe in majority rules and if by some chance the DPA wins I will respect the results and support the DPA. However, I ask look around at where we have been and where we are now. We are at the top of the heap save maybe SW and we are getting ready to negotiate for more gains with the most profitable airline in history. I just hope we don't have an ongoing power struggle over our representation to hamstring us.