Originally Posted by
skillett
Sorry there is no two year upgrade at Mesa sorry guys, that is bull that has been thrown out there by flight recruitment. But, reading the crappy 24/7 call schedules and other factors that you guys have been posting I think I would rather sit in the right seat of a regional. The pay does suck and the QOL, until you get some seniority. Don't worry about PIC, 90 percent of our Captains are staying, the upgrades are going to be a lot longer than forecast. And at their age they're not to blame, (911, 2008 crash) have changed their aviation careers. My guess is 5 years, 4 at best for upgrade including the E175. Majors will not care if you have been flying a piston DC3 in three years anyway. They will need pilots. The current hiring that I have been seeing is the younger less experienced at the majors recently anyway. I won't comment anymore on that in this post. So don't worry about that jet PIC. And if your still in school and have a chance to change majors. Go get a computer engineering degree and buy a plane to fly around. Just my advice.
Skillett, if we add 40 planes in 2 years ( best case, i agree - 30 for united and 10 more for Us Air, we will have 110 planes. At 9 truly active pilots per plane that equals 990 truly active pilots. A strait 50/50 CA/FO ratio means
495 captains.
Currently we have 597 truly active pilots (on rosters or doing IOE) both CA and FOs
Now, the attrition has averaged 4.28 pilots per month over the last 7 months. In 2 years that average, if maintained, will equal 102 pilots gone.
597 - 102 =
495
That means in 2 years, every pilot on the property today, that remains here, will have to be a captain.
Plus... there will always be at least a couple dozen, or more people who will remain FO for personal reasons.
Also... i've used Mesa historic staffing of 9 pilots per plane. Increase this even slightly, possibly to 10 under rule 117 and it is even better.
Or bump up attrition over 5 per month and see what happens.
Or alter the CA/FO ratio to 53/47 (which is not uncommon by the way to have more captains than fos)
Thats why i built this
spreadsheet - i think it is pretty revealing.
Of course this is all predicated on at least 40 more airplanes headed our way. If that doesnt happen, then obviously nor will a 2 or even 3 year upgrade.