Originally Posted by
skillett
You are a very positive fellow, Sulkair. You would be a great evangelist taking all that money from those poor folks for a trip to heaven to live forever. As of today not two years or one from now, today. To hold Captain on the mainland is 10 years. Yes we are getting 30 airplanes from United (we don't own them United will), so they can do whatever they want. First scheduled flight is not until June of next year and I'm not sure the delivery dates for the additional planes but I know it will take close to two years. Airways has not announced an additional 10 aircraft so you cannot equate that. And there is another financial bubble building again that could burst and slow growth as well. A lot of factors are involved, yours just is the absolute best case scenario. And it will be a two year upgrade after all the deliveries of the new aircraft. Depending on mainline hiring practices. I know I will be looking to leave but most the captains we have on CRJ 9 fleet will retire at Mesa. And another financial crash I might be retiring at Mesa as well.
The only thing I take exception to, in your whole post, is your second sentence. It was a pretty tawdry blow dude. But thats ok I can take it.
Just so you know though, I am nothing like that, and would never steal from anyone, or try to deceive them.
Some of what you say has some merit, and I don't necessarily disagree. My reply to your post was simply to shed light on some of the numbers behind why the 2 year upgrade is a reasonable possibility.
I have not focused only on the absolute "best case scenerio" as you imply. see this post from a few pages back
Originally Posted by
sulkair
So my defaults in the spreadsheet are pretty optimistic, yet realistic I think. But in the interest of fairness lets look at a less than desirable, yet realistic scenario too.
Go to my spreadsheet and type in:
100 Planes. (imagining after the 175s arrive, no more growth)
9 pilots per plane (imagining they decide to run as lean as possible)
2 per month attrition (imagining the whole industry slows)
And you'll see that you must push the projection out 4 years before the most senior guys in class right now will see an upgrade.
Listen - everyone! I am not an advocate for Mesa per-say This place has caused me as much misery as anyone, but it also has given me a lot of opportunities that I never seized.
Out of 30 in my initial class, only 2 of us remain here. The rest are at every Major you can name.
This airline has pumped out a massive number of well respected and well rounded Major Airline Pilots, and will continue to do so. Just because you Skillett, or I, aren't one of them doesn't change that fact.
Last thing. a 10 year Jr mainland captain has absolutely nothing to do with anything right now. Nor does the fact that "ALL" the current captains at mesa are going to retire here.
This airline shrunk from nearly 2000 pilots to about 600. That is why we have 10 year jr Captains, and why it appears we have an inordinate number of old-timers who won't move on.
And obviously if we don't get the new deliveries, nothing is going to happen.