First, check out this website:
http://www.ruleof70to110.com/main/index.html
Yes, I know it's Embraer propaganda, but it brings about a few interesting questions and I think it might be worth while to take a look at it. The executive summary is that Embraer claims that the industry lacks 70 to 110 seat jets that could serve longer, thin city pairs. Essentially, current regional jets aren't big enough and the 737/A320 family is too large.
I'm not currently in the industry, and I'd really like some of you with more experience to state your opinions.
- Does Embraer have valid claims?
- Will major carriers (i.e. Delta) fly the ERJ-170/190 on the main line? Delta currently is selling options for 38 B-737-800 aircraft, and I've heard that they're getting the ERJ-190s.
- What ever happened to USAir & AA F-100s? If there is a 70-110 seat gap, why did the airlines get rid of F-100s?
* The bottom line: is this a real threat to SWA?
I'm heading to get my 737 type in July, and I'm leaning heavily towards SWA. However, I don't think it's wise for anyone to assume that today's success will guarantee tomorrow's paycheck. SWA seems like it's starting to get excess capacity - I've heard that first quarter was somewhere around 70% on average. Considering that their break even load factor was somewhere around 67%, they're still making a profit. But does their emphasis on growth equate to future excess capacity? More importantly, will the ERJ-170/190 pose a serious threat?
Thanks for your inputs,
Riddler