Riddler

First, check out this website: http://www.ruleof70to110.com/main/index.html

Yes, I know it's Embraer propaganda, but it brings about a few interesting questions and I think it might be worth while to take a look at it. The executive summary is that Embraer claims that the industry lacks 70 to 110 seat jets that could serve longer, thin city pairs. Essentially, current regional jets aren't big enough and the 737/A320 family is too large.

I'm not currently in the industry, and I'd really like some of you with more experience to state your opinions.
- Does Embraer have valid claims?
- Will major carriers (i.e. Delta) fly the ERJ-170/190 on the main line? Delta currently is selling options for 38 B-737-800 aircraft, and I've heard that they're getting the ERJ-190s.
- What ever happened to USAir & AA F-100s? If there is a 70-110 seat gap, why did the airlines get rid of F-100s?

* The bottom line: is this a real threat to SWA?
I'm heading to get my 737 type in July, and I'm leaning heavily towards SWA. However, I don't think it's wise for anyone to assume that today's success will guarantee tomorrow's paycheck. SWA seems like it's starting to get excess capacity - I've heard that first quarter was somewhere around 70% on average. Considering that their break even load factor was somewhere around 67%, they're still making a profit. But does their emphasis on growth equate to future excess capacity? More importantly, will the ERJ-170/190 pose a serious threat?

Thanks for your inputs,
Riddler

JoeyMeatballs

Well for one, they use an enormous amount of fuel
and for number two.......................Why pay mainline pilots to fly them when you can HAVE MESA employ 21 yr ld kids to fly 90 seat airplanes for 20 bucks an hour

Flyby1206

In my opinion... the only way a E190 can be a serious threat is if the cockpit crew is at the low end of the pay scale. Having said that... I dont think regional carriers are the way to do this. Follow me for a moment... If CHQ/MESA/etc has a fleet of small props, small jets, and E190s then what will all the senior people bid to fly? The E190. Its the top of the payscale and best QOL for that particular company. Now what if a major carrier like DAL had the E190. Who would want to bid for an E190? Nobody except the bottom of the seniority list. This helps keep the labor costs a lot lower for that particular a/c, which in turn creates a better profit margin as opposed to a regional carrier.

Which majors have the 190s now? DAL, USAir, JBlu? Once all the maintenance probs are sorted out with the 190 it might be a competitive platform, we'll see.

Riddler

I noticed that Compass will fly the ERJ-175s. However, those guys will be ALPA, and it could be an interesting outcome. Possibly bridge the gap between regionals and majors in terms of pay and benefits.

JoeyMeatballs

Nah you misunderstood me, I meant the F-100 are gas hogs........... You asked why airlines didnt keep them............

Riddler

Saab- ya, I caught that just a few minutes ago, and I updated my post.

Thanks!
Riddler

HotMamaPilot

lol! you're still an idealist, aren't you? management will NEVER let that happen. once you give summin' up, it never comes back. Those days are over.

HotMamaPilot

not to be a bit@h, but i read that over and over and it still makes no sense to me....could you articulate a little please. huh?

Riddler

HotMama- look at US Airways, they're most junior captain is flying E-190s (hired in 1987 by the way). He's a mainline pilot, not a commuter guy. Management let it happen, but in US Airways case, they had no choice if they still wanted a job. Look at Compass and Horizon. Essentially, they're outsourced versions of the US Airways scenario. The rumor that Delta's mainline is getting E-190s also follows US Airways.

I guess my point is that management already let it happen, and other airlines are facing a tough decision: follow suit, or stay in bankruptcy.

Flyby1206

Basically, put an E190 at a mainline and nobody wants to fly it so the junior (cheaper payscales) have to fly it. Put an E190 at a regional and everyone wants to fly it (senior expensive payscales).