Originally Posted by
galaxy flyer
And, thus, we have the problem of too many pilots chasing too few jobs. The 10,000 app answer was the same in 1984, "we have to get hired, they'll run out of pilots". No matter how you slice it, a thin minority, 15% at most, will get mainline legacy jobs. Look who is getting hired now--flows and ex-mil guys with beaucoup squares filled--SQ DO, safety, IP/SEFEs. I've been around since the '70s, it's a small group that gets hired at majors, the rest fly at regionals, corporates, freight ( not FDX, UPS, either).
GF
Did you even read the rest of what was said? The theory here is that every major/lcc/etc have
THE SAME 10k apps on file. Of course that theory is not perfect but even if there isn't quite that much overlap maybe its 15k apps total....or even 20k.
Now it is not theory but FACT that there are 18k major retirements in the next decadeish. There are only about 20k regional pilots(Probably about 20% of which are lifers). Obviously that is not the only pool but again, even if you add 50% to that for 135/91/military thats 30k pilots....for almost 20k positions. The odds aren't all that bad.