What do you think the industry will look like in 5 years?
12-31-2013 | 07:18 PM
#71
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From: Volleyball Player
12-31-2013 | 07:26 PM
#72
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From: Baja Vermont
Did you even read the rest of what was said? The theory here is that every major/lcc/etc have THE SAME 10k apps on file. Of course that theory is not perfect but even if there isn't quite that much overlap maybe its 15k apps total....or even 20k.
Now it is not theory but FACT that there are 18k major retirements in the next decadeish. There are only about 20k regional pilots(Probably about 20% of which are lifers). Obviously that is not the only pool but again, even if you add 50% to that for 135/91/military thats 30k pilots....for almost 20k positions. The odds aren't all that bad.
Now it is not theory but FACT that there are 18k major retirements in the next decadeish. There are only about 20k regional pilots(Probably about 20% of which are lifers). Obviously that is not the only pool but again, even if you add 50% to that for 135/91/military thats 30k pilots....for almost 20k positions. The odds aren't all that bad.
Yes, I read it and back in the "glory days" of the 80s, there were 10k apps at each of above 8 majors, all THE SAME people, too. AA, DL, UA, EA, WA, BN, CO, NW, OZ, and others were hiring like mad, AA, UA and EA each were hiring 80-100 a month and there was NO regional lines to provide thousands of pilots, just the military and a few commuters. Guess what? They didn't t run out then, they won't in 2020. Be prepared to fly elsewhere than the majors, just in case.
GF
12-31-2013 | 11:15 PM
#73
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From: Left
Pagey,
Yes, I read it and back in the "glory days" of the 80s, there were 10k apps at each of above 8 majors, all THE SAME people, too. AA, DL, UA, EA, WA, BN, CO, NW, OZ, and others were hiring like mad, AA, UA and EA each were hiring 80-100 a month and there was NO regional lines to provide thousands of pilots, just the military and a few commuters. Guess what? They didn't t run out then, they won't in 2020. Be prepared to fly elsewhere than the majors, just in case.
GF
Yes, I read it and back in the "glory days" of the 80s, there were 10k apps at each of above 8 majors, all THE SAME people, too. AA, DL, UA, EA, WA, BN, CO, NW, OZ, and others were hiring like mad, AA, UA and EA each were hiring 80-100 a month and there was NO regional lines to provide thousands of pilots, just the military and a few commuters. Guess what? They didn't t run out then, they won't in 2020. Be prepared to fly elsewhere than the majors, just in case.
GF
My main point is this: If you want to be at a major airline you probably have a better chance at making it there in the next decade than at any other time in history.
I'm not saying that Delta is going to run out of apps.
01-01-2014 | 10:11 AM
#74
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From: Ca B737
Here is what our fearless industry leaders think is going to happen. Is your favorite quoted here? I think the CEO of Hawaiian might have the best guess of what our industry looks like in 25 years. I find it interesting what Gallagher from Allegiant says.
• Mark Dunkerley, CEO Hawaiian Airlines: "Many of today's consumers will be priced out of the air: a sad legacy to 30 years of massive progress in democratizing air travel. Failure to invest in aviation infrastructure and the insatiable appetite for regulation will not be offset by relatively modest further improvements in aircraft efficiency."
CEO predictions for the next 100 years of flying | Technology | KATU.com - Portland News, Sports, Traffic Weather and Breaking News - Portland, Oregon
• Mark Dunkerley, CEO Hawaiian Airlines: "Many of today's consumers will be priced out of the air: a sad legacy to 30 years of massive progress in democratizing air travel. Failure to invest in aviation infrastructure and the insatiable appetite for regulation will not be offset by relatively modest further improvements in aircraft efficiency."
CEO predictions for the next 100 years of flying | Technology | KATU.com - Portland News, Sports, Traffic Weather and Breaking News - Portland, Oregon
01-01-2014 | 11:05 AM
#76
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From: Baja Vermont
[QUOTE][My main point is this: If you want to be at a major airline you probably have a better chance at making it there in the next decade than at any other time in history./QUOTE]
Not to argue, but I take it you haven't flown with the 60s boom group. One at EAL was hired, bragged about it, with 200 hours of Luscombe time. Another friend was hired at UA on a cocktail bet--"you're such a hot pilot, bet you can't get hired at an airline". Two weeks later, he was, retired on the -10. Airlines advertised, yes advertised, in Flying for pilots. That will never happen again, especially if Richard Anderson is right and RJs disappear. Bombardier is predicting 600 50-seaters will go.
Good Luck
GF
Not to argue, but I take it you haven't flown with the 60s boom group. One at EAL was hired, bragged about it, with 200 hours of Luscombe time. Another friend was hired at UA on a cocktail bet--"you're such a hot pilot, bet you can't get hired at an airline". Two weeks later, he was, retired on the -10. Airlines advertised, yes advertised, in Flying for pilots. That will never happen again, especially if Richard Anderson is right and RJs disappear. Bombardier is predicting 600 50-seaters will go.
Good Luck
GF
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