Originally Posted by
pagey
Did you even read the rest of what was said? The theory here is that every major/lcc/etc have THE SAME 10k apps on file. Of course that theory is not perfect but even if there isn't quite that much overlap maybe its 15k apps total....or even 20k.
Now it is not theory but FACT that there are 18k major retirements in the next decadeish. There are only about 20k regional pilots(Probably about 20% of which are lifers). Obviously that is not the only pool but again, even if you add 50% to that for 135/91/military thats 30k pilots....for almost 20k positions. The odds aren't all that bad.
Pagey,
Yes, I read it and back in the "glory days" of the 80s, there were 10k apps at each of above 8 majors, all
THE SAME people, too. AA, DL, UA, EA, WA, BN, CO, NW, OZ, and others were hiring like mad, AA, UA and EA each were hiring 80-100 a month and there was NO regional lines to provide thousands of pilots, just the military and a few commuters. Guess what? They didn't t run out then, they won't in 2020. Be prepared to fly elsewhere than the majors, just in case.
GF