Originally Posted by Packrat

Originally Posted by Wheels up

1. Industry 25% smaller. UAL and US Airways will fail, but not before AA and maybe CAL go Chapter 11. AA will have massive layoffs in the Fall and will declare BK in the winter and impose a draconian contract on employees. Many of the AA leadership will leave with fat bonuses prior to BK.The DAL/NWA merger will go badly and result in parking of a large number of airplanes and large numbers of layoffs with Anderson saying "It's not the merger, it's the economy."
2. Bad recession and inflation in the US economy. Europe and Asia will follow.
3. Little to no air service at smaller airports.
4. Very few sub-100 seat airplanes.
5. Companies, aided by the government and courts, will dumb-down the profession even more.
6. The gubment will sell-out to foreigners and allow majority ownership of US carriers as well as open sky rights.
7. Commuter companies will go away and mainline will pickup that flying. However, the unions will be emasculated by the companies, government, and court system and will be working for commuter wages anyway.
8. Senior mainline pilots will sell-out junior pilots in a vain attempt to hold onto their compensation a little long. In the long run, it won't work and you'll see the pilot profession basically a truck driver status job.
9. Obama and the democrats will be running the government, but will gladly screw over the airline unions in favor of keeping tickets as cheap as practical. Obama will continue to ride-the-tiger in Iraq and Afganistan.

Originally Posted by mike734

Wow. Just wow. Can you please enlighten us with some more predictions Wheels up? Your insight is amazing!

Originally Posted by The Duke

On a more serious note, folks should check out the all-new A400 from Airbus...4 engine t-prop, extremely efficient, capable of .70 mach, way up in the flightlevels (FL370 I believe). I'm not a huge airbus fan, but this seems like an uber-capable aircraft that burns a heckuva lot less fuel than a jet. Maybe we'll see these in our skies, or something similar, to offset fuel costs.

Seems like a sweet plane.

Airbus A400M Military Transport Aircraft – Air Military Transport at its Finest - Airbus A400M

Originally Posted by The Duke

I'm not in favor of a single-pilot flightdeck for the reasons you've all specified. Personally, I love flying w/ someone else, usually makes the job a lot of fun and less stressful. My only concern is that advancements that we're seeing w/ the military, specifically drone aircraft, will eventually find their way to the flightdecks of commercial airlines. Wasn't GPS started by our military...now we're using GPS. The military gave us the internet (Sorry Al), now we're using the internet.

It's just a hypothetical, but if the military can now launch remotely controlled 24 hr. drone missions in the middle-east, wouldn't it be possible to apply this to commercial aviation? Cost may dictate that this is at least considered/tried in order to allow for much of the American public to continue to afford commercial flying. Again, I'm opposed to the idea, but don't think for a second that there are others who have not given all of this some serious thought.

Originally Posted by galaxy flyer

And, thus, we have the problem of too many pilots chasing too few jobs. The 10,000 app answer was the same in 1984, "we have to get hired, they'll run out of pilots". No matter how you slice it, a thin minority, 15% at most, will get mainline legacy jobs. Look who is getting hired now--flows and ex-mil guys with beaucoup squares filled--SQ DO, safety, IP/SEFEs. I've been around since the '70s, it's a small group that gets hired at majors, the rest fly at regionals, corporates, freight ( not FDX, UPS, either).

GF

Originally Posted by galaxy flyer

...a thin minority, 15% at most, will get mainline legacy jobs. Look who is getting hired now--flows and ex-mil guys with beaucoup squares filled--SQ DO, safety, IP/SEFEs. I've been around since the '70s, it's a small group that gets hired at majors, the rest fly at regionals, corporates, freight...

Originally Posted by pagey

Now it is not theory but FACT that there are 18k major retirements in the next decadeish. There are only about 20k regional pilots(Probably about 20% of which are lifers). Obviously that is not the only pool but again, even if you add 50% to that for 135/91/military thats 30k pilots....for almost 20k positions. The odds aren't all that bad.

Originally Posted by Packrat

Your numbers are fuzzy. Where did you get 18K retirements in the next 10 years? You're also assuming that no more airlines go out of business, there is no hiccup in the economy, fuel prices remain stable, a whole plethora of variables.

Remember 2001? How many guys got furloughed? How many guys saw their upgrade go from 6 to 12-15 years?

What happens if the age rule goes to 67? 70?

Sorry to pop your fantasy balloon. Congrats to people who do get hired. Those of you who don't...try not to be too bitter.