I agree, all three would put up a HUGE fight with this. The NTSB would throw a fit too. I don't see the public being ok with this in the slightest, not that it would necessarily stop them from flying (they may put up a stink about these things, but from past history, they fly anyways).

 

1. Industry 25% smaller. UAL and US Airways will fail, but not before AA and maybe CAL go Chapter 11. AA will have massive layoffs in the Fall and will declare BK in the winter and impose a draconian contract on employees. Many of the AA leadership will leave with fat bonuses prior to BK.The DAL/NWA merger will go badly and result in parking of a large number of airplanes and large numbers of layoffs with Anderson saying "It's not the merger, it's the economy."
2. Bad recession and inflation in the US economy. Europe and Asia will follow.
3. Little to no air service at smaller airports.
4. Very few sub-100 seat airplanes.
5. Companies, aided by the government and courts, will dumb-down the profession even more.
6. The gubment will sell-out to foreigners and allow majority ownership of US carriers as well as open sky rights.
7. Commuter companies will go away and mainline will pickup that flying. However, the unions will be emasculated by the companies, government, and court system and will be working for commuter wages anyway.
8. Senior mainline pilots will sell-out junior pilots in a vain attempt to hold onto their compensation a little long. In the long run, it won't work and you'll see the pilot profession basically a truck driver status job.
9. Obama and the democrats will be running the government, but will gladly screw over the airline unions in favor of keeping tickets as cheap as practical. Obama will continue to ride-the-tiger in Iraq and Afganistan.

 

This. An industry that is just a shadow of what it is now due to tremendous reductions across the board. In other words, I don't think that many of us will employed in this industry in 5 years.

 

If all the hype about the world ending in 2012 comes true, nobody will have to worry about it. Lets just hope theres some truth to the myth.

 

Depending on how the government regulates runaway oil speculation, (if they do), things could be rosier than darker.

However assuming status qou the following are likely to play out:

- UAL will join Eastern, PAN AM, TWA, etc. at that big airport in the sky. Several thousand skilled workers will be out of work while Tilton and the board make off with millions they never deserved. Perhaps this will start another Enron type controversy and Tiltion will get his before a judge.

- Airways will have nagging issues with completing the merger due to slow integration of colletive barganing employees into one unit. They will face issues in PHL with WN and could face the same situtation they had in PIT and are facing in LAS due to LLC pressure. I think they will be alive when the recovery is done, but noticebly(SP) smaller, pending on what happens in PHL.

- AA will continue to show more huge losses like the blow they just dealt with booting 9000 employees. The sad part is no one will really see it coming as bad as it comes.

-Air Tran will reduce as needed in lean times and quickly ramp up when the fortunes are better

- As far a regionals go, it will be an interesting ride. Due to mergers, failures and other issues, it will be interesting to see who besides OO is around when it's all said and done.

 

Thanks for all the great posts and information. Here is my thought on the market outlook for the industry. First and foremost, I believe oil will substantially drop, not back to $60.00/barrel, but to about $90.00. This will resume hiring again in the airline industry, and many pilots who are about to be furloughed or a currently furloughed will leave the industry. Followed by older pilots, who are going to choose not to stay to 65 because of all the crap they have put up with. The majors are going to focus on long legged profitable routes, which will mostly be comprised of international routes. Shorter routes will be taken by the regionals (the ones that still exist). I also think that fuel will be hedged by the airlines once it drops. I also ultimately believe that the government will regulate the industry once again, and that a national seniority list will be created for pilots. While this is a horrible time for the industry and their will be many casualities, it is an eye opener for management of these airlines that they need to create better and more efficient business models for sustained success over the long term (this includes pilot pay). Anyone have any thoughts regarding what I have said? I would like to hear both positive and negative opinions.

 

I've changed my tune...all airlines will cease to exist in 5 yrs. time as every American household will posess a flying hybrid-electric car at that time capable of .82 mach in the flight-levels. For those who are extremely wealthy, NetJets will have acquired hyper-jets that travel in space (Think Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 Space Odyssey) that enable rapid transport around the globe. Their flight attendants will even retrieve pens that somehow float away in the zero-gravity environment of outer-space. Most of us will be kicking ourselves, wishing that we had applied to NetJets back when they only required piston time. Those pilots who saw their careers extended by 5 years due to the age 65 rule will have had their heads cryogenically frozen and reattached to their bodies years later only to come back to the cockpit due to changes in the ICAO regs that allow the piloting of a spacecraft up to the age of 6500 years, pending a thorough physical of course.

Remember, I called it here first

 

Probably not. UAL sucks in almost every way imaginable but one: They have a good liquid asset-to-obligation ratio compared to certain other airlines. If it's just a matter of bleeding out cash, most of the nationals, USAir, and AA will go long before UA. And make no mistake, chapter 11 will mean liquidation in short order in this environment. Presumeably the governemnt will intervene before UA runs out of money, simply because of the drastic loss in capacity which will have already occured.

As painful as it appears from our perspective, their pilot labor strife is not catastrophic to their operation . Their REAL problem is few liquid assets compared to their financial obligations.

I wouldn't bet on ANY small nationl carrier surviving this, except maybe Virgin thanks to sir richard's deep pockets.

Regionals will still have a niche, due to low labor costs and their control of small jets which do have a place in the hub-and-spoke system. Hard to guess exactly what the landscape will look like though...

SWA cannot replace hub-and-spoke operations with their existing business model....their point-to-point structure does not work for smaller towns (the 737 is too big). I think they currently carry about 20% of domestic traffic....even if they filled every possible niche, they would still leave a huge percentage of the population unserved. Unless they get a regional onboard and start doing hub operations...never say never.

 

Not going to happen in the near future...

Pilots are no longer the major cost-burden they were in the past.

Getting rid of the Navs and FE's was automation of jobs. Getting rid of one of the two pilots is a loss of redundancy...you can't automate pilot judgement and flexibility without human-level artificial intelligence (which is nowhere in sight). Our national regulatory structure will not (by policy) accept reductions in safety...changes must be enhance, or maintain existing safey levels.

Maybe someday, but not in our working lifetime. If it happens it will start with cargo anyway.

 

This is something for all those automation and Auto-Pilot Lovers out there to contemplate...Y'all are going to automate yourselves right out of a career...and then you'll wonder why!

I don't know...once in awhile it's nice to not have to bury myself in Sudoku to keep from conversing with a nutjob next to me LoL

That's what they said about elevators. When was the last time you saw an elevator-operator?? It'll happen quicker than you think.