Old 07-07-2008 | 06:53 PM
  #26  
rickdb
Cleared for Takeoff
 
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 119
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From: Air Bus Driver
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Thanks for all the great posts and information. Here is my thought on the market outlook for the industry. First and foremost, I believe oil will substantially drop, not back to $60.00/barrel, but to about $90.00. This will resume hiring again in the airline industry, and many pilots who are about to be furloughed or a currently furloughed will leave the industry. Followed by older pilots, who are going to choose not to stay to 65 because of all the crap they have put up with. The majors are going to focus on long legged profitable routes, which will mostly be comprised of international routes. Shorter routes will be taken by the regionals (the ones that still exist). I also think that fuel will be hedged by the airlines once it drops. I also ultimately believe that the government will regulate the industry once again, and that a national seniority list will be created for pilots. While this is a horrible time for the industry and their will be many casualities, it is an eye opener for management of these airlines that they need to create better and more efficient business models for sustained success over the long term (this includes pilot pay). Anyone have any thoughts regarding what I have said? I would like to hear both positive and negative opinions.
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