Originally Posted by
Releasemaster
Depending on how the government regulates runaway oil speculation, (if they do), things could be rosier than darker.
However assuming status qou the following are likely to play out:
- UAL will join Eastern, PAN AM, TWA, etc. at that big airport in the sky.
Probably not. UAL sucks in almost every way imaginable but one: They have a good liquid asset-to-obligation ratio compared to certain other airlines. If it's just a matter of bleeding out cash, most of the nationals, USAir, and AA will go long before UA. And make no mistake, chapter 11 will mean liquidation in short order in this environment. Presumeably the governemnt will intervene before UA runs out of money, simply because of the drastic loss in capacity which will have already occured.
Originally Posted by
Releasemaster
- Airways will have nagging issues with completing the merger due to slow integration of colletive barganing employees into one unit. They will face issues in PHL with WN and could face the same situtation they had in PIT and are facing in LAS due to LLC pressure. I think they will be alive when the recovery is done, but noticebly(SP) smaller, pending on what happens in PHL.
As painful as it appears from our perspective, their pilot labor strife is not catastrophic to their operation . Their REAL problem is few liquid assets compared to their financial obligations.
Originally Posted by
Releasemaster
-Air Tran will reduce as needed in lean times and quickly ramp up when the fortunes are better
I wouldn't bet on ANY small nationl carrier surviving this, except maybe Virgin thanks to sir richard's deep pockets.
Originally Posted by
Releasemaster
- As far a regionals go, it will be an interesting ride. Due to mergers, failures and other issues, it will be interesting to see who besides OO is around when it's all said and done.
Regionals will still have a niche, due to low labor costs and their control of small jets which do have a place in the hub-and-spoke system. Hard to guess exactly what the landscape will look like though...
SWA cannot replace hub-and-spoke operations with their existing business model....their point-to-point structure does not work for smaller towns (the 737 is too big). I think they currently carry about 20% of domestic traffic....even if they filled every possible niche, they would still leave a huge percentage of the population unserved. Unless they get a regional onboard and start doing hub operations...never say never.